For the second time in two months, President Donald Trump is heading to South Carolina to try to save a Senate seat Republicans considered safe until recently.
The reliably red bastion hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998. But Republican Sen. Darline Graham is locked in an unexpectedly close race with Democrat Annie Andrews, and the GOP is pouring money and manpower into the state in the campaign’s final stretch.
They have their work cut out for them.
Trump’s rally Wednesday in Clemson comes at a precarious moment for the party. On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report shifted the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” It was the outlet’s second downgrade of Republicans’ grip on the seat in recent weeks, and came as recent polls showed a close contest.
The race has been a rollercoaster from the start. After the shocking death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, Republicans scrambled to coalesce around his sister, Darline, who was appointed to the seat. Then, during a high-stakes debate on Aug. 18, she said she was “not that informed on national security,” setting off a frenzied effort to pick up the pieces.
Republicans in the state are clear-eyed about where the problem lies.
“There’s no question that there’s a drag at the top of the ticket,” one South Carolina GOP official told MS NOW, referring to Graham.
The official, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the race, said Republicans weren’t as united behind Graham as they should be this late in the campaign.
“There are voters who are voting third party, there are the voters who are voting elsewhere, and there doesn’t seem to be as much cohesion amongst the Republican electorate around her,” the official said.
The polls suggest that it’s not a South Carolina problem, but rather a Graham problem. An October survey from Trafalgar Group, a Republican polling firm, found Graham leading by just 3 percentage points, 49% to 46%. That same month, Trafalgar found Alan Wilson, the GOP nominee for governor, ahead of Democrat Jermaine Johnson by 16 points, 52.5% to 36.5%.
Republicans are spending accordingly. Earlier this month, the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., put a last-minute $5 million into the race as nerves hit overdrive. Since the Aug. 18 debate, Republicans have spent more than $22.5 million on the race, compared with $17.1 million from Democrats, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
To some Republicans, spending a single dollar in South Carolina is a waste in a year when control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs.
“It’s political malpractice that we’re even having to spend money in the state,” the GOP official said.
That money, the official argued, belongs in battleground states, not a ruby-red one.
“South Carolina should not be a state where we have to spend money to shore up a Republican nominee,” the official said. “There’s a lot of worry that Darline isn’t doing what she needs to do, or her campaign is not doing what they need to do to finish the race strong.”
Trump is the party’s other big investment. Clemson sits in the state’s Upstate region, territory Republican Rep. Ralph Norman dominated in the August primary. Norman carried Pickens and Anderson counties, which include Clemson, by 16 and 15 percentage points, respectively.
There is some evidence the approach works. In this summer’s special primary, Graham finished second in Horry County, home to Myrtle Beach, with 35%, to 42% for GOP Rep. Russell Fry, who represents the area. After Trump rallied there and Fry endorsed her, Graham won 73% of the vote in the runoff.
A source in South Carolina Republican politics said Trump’s visit to the northern part of the state this week was “wise,” pointing to the Horry County turnout.
“It’s going to help fire up the most conservative part of the state right before the election,” the source said. “I think it’ll help a lot.”
But Trump’s backing only goes so far. Despite his endorsement, Graham couldn’t lock down the nomination early and was forced into a runoff.
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There’s also an awkward subplot to Wednesday’s trip.
When she arrived in Washington, Graham became the face of a bill imposing sanctions on Russia and Iran, picking up where her brother left off. Congress passed it, and Trump signed it into law. It was a major achievement for the new senator, and one she frequently cited as proof she could get things done, especially as she fielded questions about her qualifications after the debate.
But earlier this week, Trump signed an executive order exempting Russia from the sanctions, gutting her signature accomplishment.
Asked about the move, Graham said the legislation was “one of the tools he can use to do that,” adding: “It’s up to him whether or not he chooses to use it.”
She also made it clear she disagreed.
“Personally, I would choose to keep the pressure on Russia … because I don’t trust Putin, and I don’t trust Russia,” Graham said, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Meanwhile, the campaign has reached a fever pitch. Earlier this month, Trump attacked Andrews on Truth Social, using an anti-transgender slur against her and writing that she did not represent the “values of the great people of South Carolina” and was “not for South Carolina.”
Andrews told WYFF, a Greenville TV station, that she saw the attacks from Trump “coming at some point.”
“I think they want it to be a distraction for me, but it’s not going to be a distraction,” she said. “I am a disciplined, hard-working candidate who is outhustling and out-fundraising my opponent. That’s why national figures like the president are getting involved.”
Trump is likely to keep up those attacks on Wednesday and to make clear how much he sees riding on the race.
At a tele-rally for Graham last week, he repeated his favorite refrain of the cycle: “Just pretend I’m on the ballot.”
In South Carolina, that’s closer to the truth than usual. After Lindsey Graham’s death, Trump lobbied Republican Gov. Henry McMaster to appoint Darline Graham to the seat, publicly encouraged her to run for the full six-year term and endorsed her once she entered the race.
Her bid is on the line. So is Trump’s credibility.
“Essentially,” Trump said at the tele-rally, “I am on the ballot.”
Hunter Woodall contributed to this report.
Mychael Schnell is a congressional reporter for MS NOW.
Nora McKee is an associate field producer for MS NOW. She is based in Washington, D.C.
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