Although the overall frequency of armed clashes across Myanmar has declined compared to previous years, military operations and conflict zones are expanding significantly nationwide, according to a comprehensive report by BNI- Myanmar Peace Monitor. 

The findings, published in BNI’s latest report Deciphering Myanmar’s Peace Process: A Reference Guide (2025–2026), recorded 1,854 armed clashes nationwide between 2025 and July 2026.

According to Hnin Ko Oo, head of BNI- Myanmar Peace Monitor, the lower total clash count does not reflect a loss of military momentum, but rather a strategic shift in conflict geography. 

He noted that military intensity remains high in Kachin and Arakan states, and that resistance forces are moving away from single-group operations toward unified, collective actions to reactivate momentum in other regions.

The report highlighted that clashes between the military junta and People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) outnumbered those fought directly between the regime and Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs). 

While fighting remained concentrated in the central Anyar region—covering Sagaing, Mandalay, and Magway—conflict has increasingly spilled into surrounding areas, including Bago and Ayeyarwady regions as well as Chin State.

BNI identified the junta’s relentless aerial campaign as the primary driver of escalating violence. 

Between January 2024 and July 2026, the military carried out 2,449 airstrikes, with nearly 70 percent deliberately targeting civilian populations. 

Arakanese politician and writer Wai Hun Aung remarked that when the junta cannot defeat revolutionary forces on the battlefield, it carries out aerial bombardments on civilians to exert pressure and instill fear, describing the continuous airstrikes as pure atrocities.

The report documented severe civilian casualties resulting from regime strikes, noting that 197 mass-casualty incidents claiming five or more lives resulted in 2,123 civilian deaths between January 2025 and July 2026. 

Furthermore, between April 2022 and July 2026, a total of 432 mass-casualty events resulted in 4,573 civilian deaths nationwide.

BNI assessed that prospects for peace remain bleak as the junta relies heavily on forced military conscription and ongoing troop reinforcements. 

The monitor warned that enforced recruitment drives initiated in 2026 will entrench the crisis, pushing Myanmar into a prolonged period of intractable warfare in the years ahead.