America’s most Republican state is no longer considered entirely safe for the GOP in the race for its sole House seat, according to a leading election forecaster.

Inside Elections moved Wyoming’s at-large congressional district from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" in its latest House ratings, published Thursday.

The change means a Republican defeat would still be a major upset, but the seat is no longer in the forecaster’s most secure category.

"The most Republican state in the country shouldn’t be anywhere close to the House battleground," Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin and Inshara Ali wrote in the forecaster's October 15 update.

"But President Donald Trump is barely above water according to private polling, and GOP nominee Chuck Gray, the state secretary of state, is deeply unpopular statewide."

A spokesperson for Democratic nominee Lisa Kinney, a lawyer and former state senator, told Newsweek Friday that the shift in the state was palpable.

"Lisa Kinney started this campaign because she loves Wyoming and its people," the spokesperson said. "Like many others, she was frustrated by policies coming from Washington and a disastrous war that have increased costs of everyday life. This forecast shift reflects a reality the campaign has been aware of from the beginning: people in Wyoming want something different."

It is striking in a state where Trump won 71.6 percent of the 2024 vote, compared with 25.84 percent for former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump's 45.76-point victory in 2024 was his largest margin in any state, while his vote share was the highest recorded by a presidential nominee in Wyoming, surpassing Ronald Reagan’s 70.51 percent in 1984.

Gray won a crowded Republican primary with 31,224 votes, or 25.3 percent, finishing five points ahead of his nearest rival. Kinney won her primary with 9,344 votes, or 76.5 percent.

The seat is open because Republican Representative Harriet Hageman is running for the Senate. Libertarian Shawn Johnson and Constitution Party candidate Jeff Haggit are also on the November 3 ballot.

Other forecasters continue to place the contest firmly in the Republican column, meaning the rating change is not evidence that Democrats are favored to win.

Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, and Decision Desk HQ gives Chuck Gray a greater than 99 percent chance of victory.

The Inside Elections shift does, however, suggest that candidate-specific concerns and Trump’s standing may have made an extraordinarily Republican state less predictable than its recent election results would indicate.

Newsweek emailed the Gray campaign for comment on Friday morning.

Despite the ratings change, traders on two major prediction-market platforms still regard Gray as the clear favorite.

Kalshi screenshot placed Gray’s chance of winning at 92.7 percent and Kinney’s at 7.3 percent, with $13,684 in trading volume displayed at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, Polymarket put Gray at 97 percent and Kinney at 3 percent, with approximately $51,130 traded.

Those numbers should be treated as market prices, not as poll findings or guarantees.

Prediction markets, which allow participants to purchase contracts tied to an outcome, can respond quickly to new information and aggregate the judgments of participants who have money at stake.

However, their value depends partly on participation and liquidity.

A relatively small market can be more sensitive to individual trades, and its users may not resemble the electorate.

Market prices can also incorporate conventional wisdom, fundraising, polling and a state’s historical partisanship rather than independent knowledge about voters.

Kinney entered the general election with limited financial resources.

Federal Election Commission data covering January 1 through July 29 show her campaign received $17,946 and ended the period with $2,009.75 in cash on hand.

That disparity, Wyoming’s Republican lean and the prediction-market prices all point to Gray remaining the favorite.

But Inside Elections argued that his "unique vulnerabilities" could make this the state’s most competitive House contest since Democrat Gary Trauner narrowly lost in 2006 and 2008.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly, Dan Gooding and Trevor Davies