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                    "John Healey should \u201cstay the course\u201d and continue repairing the UK\u2019s public finances, the International Monetary Fund\u2019s top economist has said, after the fund lifted its growth forecast for Britain.Little more than a fortnight before Healey\u2019s first budget, Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF\u2019s economic counsellor, said the UK \u201cstands out\u201d among G7 countries in having a plan to narrow its deficit.\u201cThe UK has already started a consolidation process,\u201d she said. \u201cThe message for the UK is simply, stay the course.\u201dTenreyro, a former member of the Bank of England\u2019s monetary policy committee, was speaking at the launch of the IMF\u2019s twice-yearly World Economic Outlook (WEO) at the Fund\u2019s annual meetings in Bangkok.Healey is under pressure to announce a generous energy support package in the budget, before the sharp rise in energy bills expected in January.But in its WEO, the IMF advises member governments against across-the-board subsidies, saying any support should be \u201ctemporary, targeted and non-distortionary\u201d.In a fillip for the chancellor, who is due to arrive in Bangkok later this week, the IMF has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK this year, but it expects a modest slowdown in 2027 as higher energy prices take their toll.Responding, Healey said: \u201cConflict in the Middle East and Europe is hitting people in the UK and around the world. But Britain\u2019s economy is showing strong international resilience in the face of these challenges.\u201dThe IMF predicted GDP growth of 1.3% for the UK this year, up 0.3 percentage points from its most recent update in July.UK GDP growth has been stronger than expected in early 2026, at 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.5% in the second quarter. The Office for National Statistics has pointed to the strong expansion of AI-related businesses as one factor behind the upside surprise.However, the IMF warned that prolonged high oil prices and rising interest rates meant growth was likely to \u201cedge down\u201d in 2027 \u201cas higher energy prices and long-term interest rates weigh on consumption and investment\u201d.It cut its UK growth forecast for next year modestly to 1.2%, from 1.3%.Markets have been revising up their expectations of future inflation and interest rates across big economies since the Middle East conflict re-escalated in the summer.The Bank of England\u2019s nine-member monetary policy committee is now widely expected to raise the policy rate at its November meeting, echoing similar moves by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan.Mortgage rates in the UK have already been rising in response to higher funding costs for banks in financial markets.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe BoE policymaker Megan Greene argued on Tuesday morning that the IMF\u2019s growth upgrade was proof that UK interest rates should be higher.Speaking to the Atlantic Council at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, Greene argued that interest rates were currently not very restrictive.\u201cThere\u2019s more recently been some labour market data that has also suggested that maybe slack in the labour market has peaked, so the labour market is loose,\u201d Greene said.The IMF singled out the UK as among the countries \u2013 also including Japan \u2013 where core inflation, which excludes volatile commodities such as energy, was not expected to return to the 2% target until late next year.It expects average inflation in the UK to be 3.3% this year and to remain at 2.8% in 2027 \u2013 a challenge for Healey and the prime minister, Andy Burnham, who are promising to offer voters a \u201cbreathing space\u201d from rising costs.Healey will spend little more than 24 hours in the Thai capital before flying home to put the finishing touches to his 28 October budget.He is expected to focus on plans to devolve more tax revenues to mayoralties, alongside measures to help households cope with higher energy bills before the winter.A string of other challenging decisions, including when the UK should be aiming to spend 3% of GDP on defence, is expected to be delayed until a big spending review at some point next year.The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned this week that the budget would be a \u201cwork of fiction\u201d unless Healey explained how he would deal with what it said were \u00a335bn of future spending pressures."
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