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                    "By Florence Tan\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSINGAPORE, Oct 5 (Reuters)\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Gulf oil exporters topped pre-war levels for about half of September,\u00a0shipping\u00a0data showed on Monday, though attacks on tankers and logistical constraints cloud the outlook for sustained higher flows.\n\n\n\nShips transiting the\u00a0Strait of Hormuz\u00a0face a \u201cheightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat\u201d given the recent sharp increase in traffic, Marisks, a\u00a0shipping\u00a0intelligence service, said on Saturday.\n\n\n\nThe seven-day moving average for crude exports from the region was 18.3\u00a0million barrels per day\u00a0on September 30, provisional\u00a0data from\u00a0Kpler showed, with\u00a0volumes\u00a0topping pre-war levels on 14 days in September.\n\n\n\nThat included Gulf oil sent\u00a0Hormuz,\u00a0via\u00a0the Red Sea,\u00a0and from terminals\u00a0and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.\n\n\n\nShipments\u00a0had earlier\u00a0matched or exceeded pre-war levels on a handful of days in June and July, Kpler data showed, after Washington and Tehran reached a memorandum of understanding that has since lapsed.\n\n\n\nCrude exports from the region averaged about 18 million bpdin\u00a0the 12 months before the start of the\u00a0US-Israeli war with Iran, according to Kpler.\n\n\n\nThe\u00a0recent\u00a0export surge has been driven by Saudi Arabia loading from both the Red Sea and the Gulf, three weeks after a September 10 attack on its East-West pipeline, Kpler said.\n\n\n\nIt has required more supertankers to\u00a0shuttle crude\u00a0through Hormuz, trade sources and analysts have said, adding that ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have reached their limits.\n\n\n\nIraq\u2019s state-owned\u00a0Oil Tanker Company\u00a0and some refiners have chartered tankers to load Basrah crude inside the strait after Baghdad secured\u00a0Iranian permissionin August\u00a0for Iraqi oil tankers to pass through Hormuz.\n\n\n\nShipping\u00a0data provider\u00a0Vortexa\u00a0also said Gulf flows have recovered. It\u00a0said that the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports hit 18.6 million bpd, exceeding the 10-year seasonal average and returning to pre-conflict levels.\n\n\n\n\u201cMost of this month-over-month increase seen in September comes from Saudi Arabia, which is ramping up exports to regain market share from other Middle Eastern countries,\u201d senior market analyst Xavier Tang said.\n\n\n\n\u201cThis increase in Middle East supplies will also help alleviate tightness in the oil market, especially for Asian refiners,\u201d he said.\n\n\n\nLiquefied natural gas\u00a0cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to their highest since February.\n\n\n\nSHIP ATTACKS\n\n\n\nHowever,\u00a0attacks on tankers\u00a0continued, with at least seven incidents reported in the past week, Marisks said, noting the\u00a0very large crude carrier (VLCC) Kazimah III was struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile while in the strait, causing a fire onboard. Its owner, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, did not respond to a request for comment.\n\n\n\nMarisks said on Mondaythat\u00a0the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi was struck by an unknown projectile on October 4 while transiting northeast of Jazirat Um Al Fayarin, Oman, in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging its engine room. Dynacom, its manager, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.\n\n\n\nThe crew aboard both tankers were reported safe, with no casualties reported, Marisks said.\n\n\n\nThe United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack a day in the\u00a0Strait of Hormuz\u00a0or the\u00a0Gulf of Aden\u00a0since October 2.\n\n\n\nMarisks said\u00a0\u201cthe recent pattern of incidents may not necessarily represent deliberate targeting of individually selected merchant vessels.\n\n\n\n\u201cInstead, available information indicates the possibility that Iranian forces are launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area or \u2018kill box\u2019, with weapons potentially acquiring and locking onto available radar signatures within that area.\u201d\n\n\n\nBefore the Iran war started on February 28, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels per day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers and container vessels, accounting for some 20% of global crude and LNG supply.\n\n\n\n(Reporting by Florence Tan; editing by Sonali Paul, Tony Munroe, Hugh Lawson, Alex Lawler and Jason Neely)\n\n\n\n(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2026.\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t                \n\n\n\t\tSubscribe for Daily Maritime Insights\n\t\tSign up for gCaptain\u2019s newsletter and never miss an update\n        \u2014 trusted by our 107,091 members"
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