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Is Overperforming With Trump Voters  He might have a lucky (political) horseshoe.  (https://substack.com/@sarahlongwell) (Sarah Longwell)  (Sarah Longwell's avatar)         (https://substack.com/@sarahlongwell) Sarah Longwell     September 29 ∙ Paid      (https://www.thebulwark.com/subscribe?simple=true&next=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thebulwark.com%2Fp%2Fwhy-abdul-el-sayed-is-over-performing-trump-voters-horseshoe-midterms-michigan&utm_source=paywall&utm_medium=web&utm_content=217926147)   Upgrade to listen 12 minutes     679    117    55            (https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qGK4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f87f316-16c3-4429-8da3-58a3b2d86d94_3000x1688.jpeg)                  (Photo illustration by Bill Kuchman/ The Bulwar k | Photos: Getty, Shutterstock)    WHAT DOES ABDUL EL-SAYED have in common with Marjorie Taylor Greene? El-Sayed doesn’t think there’s much. In a  (https://youtu.be/mAWAJya0rsc) July interview with  Politico ’s Dasha Burns, he mostly rejected the comparison, which Burns made based on the fact that both politicians condemned AIPAC, opposed all aid to Israel, and called for lower health insurance costs.  “When you ask me about why establishment, elite Democrats are so worried about me,” El-Sayed said, “it’s because there are a lot of people who listen to [MTG] who are going to vote for me in the general election.” But while El-Sayed may not like being talked about in the same breath as MTG, others see some common threads. After El-Sayed won his primary, Tucker Carlson called his campaign “literally Trumpian” (as a compliment), and said that El-Sayed’s opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers, was “unfit to serve.” Clearly, there’s some El-Sayed crossover appeal. And you don’t just have to take Tucker’s word for it. In a recent  (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/us/politics/democrats-show-strength-in-michigan-senate-race-but-trail-in-maine-polls-find.html) New York Times  (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/us/politics/democrats-show-strength-in-michigan-senate-race-but-trail-in-maine-polls-find.html) /Siena poll , El-Sayed is performing better with 2024 Trump voters than other Democratic Senate candidates in swing states, winning 8 percent of 2024 Trump voters, compared to 5 percent for New Hampshire’s Chris Pappas or 3 percent for Maine’s Troy Jackson. (why-abdul-el-sayed-is-over-performing-trump-voters-horseshoe-midterms-michigan.html#footnote-1) 1  I had been wondering about this dynamic for a while (partially because I want El-Sayed to win). So a couple weeks ago, I did a focus group in Michigan with 2024 Trump voters who disapprove of Trump’s job performance. And what I discovered were    Join Bulwark+ to unlock the rest🔓  Become a paying member of The Bulwark to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. A subscription gets you:     Unlimited access to articles and newsletters including The Triad by JVL and Receipts by Catherine Rampell.     Ad-free editions of our shows (with transcripts) and member-only shows like The Secret Podcast.     Plus community chats and commenting features. Your support helps keep our work sustainable and available to those who cannot afford a membership. Cancel anytime.   (https://www.thebulwark.com/subscribe?simple=true&next=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thebulwark.com%2Fp%2Fwhy-abdul-el-sayed-is-over-performing-trump-voters-horseshoe-midterms-michigan&utm_source=paywall&utm_medium=web&utm_content=217926147) Join (https://substack.com/sign-in?redirect=%2Fp%2Fwhy-abdul-el-sayed-is-over-performing-trump-voters-horseshoe-midterms-michigan&for_pub=thebulwark&change_user=false) Already a paid subscriber? 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