{ "archive_path": "archive/1791021949.635967", "base_url": "www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/03/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-trump", "basename": "brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-trump", "bookmarked_date": "2026-10-03 10:05", "canonical": { "archive_org_path": "https://web.archive.org/web/www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/03/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-trump", "dom_path": "output.html", "favicon_path": "favicon.ico", "git_path": "git/", "google_favicon_path": "https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.theguardian.com", "headers_path": "headers.json", "htmltotext_path": "htmltotext.txt", "index_path": "index.html", "media_path": "media/", "mercury_path": "mercury/content.html", "pdf_path": "output.pdf", "readability_path": "readability/content.html", "screenshot_path": "screenshot.png", "singlefile_path": "singlefile.html", "warc_path": "warc/", "wget_path": "www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/03/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-trump.html" }, "domain": "www.theguardian.com", "extension": "", "hash": "1V63999HZDDA3QJFG1D7", "history": { "archive_org": [], "dom": [], "favicon": [ { "cmd": [ "curl", "--silent", "--location", "--compressed", "--max-time", "120", "--output", "favicon.ico", "--user-agent", "Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/118.0.0.0 Safari/537.36 ArchiveBox/0.7.4 (+https://github.com/ArchiveBox/ArchiveBox/) curl/curl 8.14.1 (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu)", "https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.theguardian.com" ], "cmd_version": "curl 8.14.1 (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu)", "end_ts": "2026-10-03T10:14:23.702611+00:00", "index_texts": null, "output": "favicon.ico", "pwd": "/data/archive/1791021949.635967", "schema": "ArchiveResult", "start_ts": "2026-10-03T10:14:22.902320+00:00", "status": "succeeded" } ], "git": [], "headers": [ { "cmd": [ "curl", "--silent", "--location", "--compressed", "--head", "--max-time", "120", "--user-agent", "Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/118.0.0.0 Safari/537.36 ArchiveBox/0.7.4 (+https://github.com/ArchiveBox/ArchiveBox/) curl/curl 8.14.1 (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu)", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/03/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-trump" ], "cmd_version": "curl 8.14.1 (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu)", "end_ts": "2026-10-03T10:14:24.234283+00:00", "index_texts": null, "output": "headers.json", "pwd": "/data/archive/1791021949.635967", "schema": "ArchiveResult", "start_ts": "2026-10-03T10:14:23.708964+00:00", "status": "succeeded" } ], "htmltotext": [], "media": [], "mercury": [ { "cmd": [ "/app/node_modules/@postlight/parser/cli.js", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/03/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-trump" ], "cmd_version": "1.0.0", "end_ts": "2026-10-03T10:14:35.151040+00:00", "index_texts": null, "output": "mercury", "pwd": "/data/archive/1791021949.635967", "schema": "ArchiveResult", "start_ts": "2026-10-03T10:14:30.820124+00:00", "status": "succeeded" } ], "pdf": [], "readability": [ { "cmd": [ "/app/node_modules/readability-extractor/readability-extractor", "/tmp/tmpffdij0bq", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/03/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-trump" ], "cmd_version": "0.0.11", "end_ts": "2026-10-03T10:14:30.812718+00:00", "index_texts": [ "Shortly after his controversial speech to the United Nations general assembly in September, Donald Trump gathered a dozen like-minded Latin American leaders and boasted that rightwing candidates had won all seven presidential elections held in the region since he began his second term.\u201cEverybody I\u2019ve endorsed has won,\u201d the US president said in New York to most of the leaders of the Shield of the Americas, an anti-drug cartel coalition of 15 countries governed by the right or far right.A giant balloon of Donald Trump holding Brazil\u2019s President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva during a Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro rally in S\u00e3o Paulo. Photograph: Miguel Schincariol/AFP/Getty ImagesDonald Trump departs a meeting of the multinational coalition Shield of the Americas on the sidelines at the UN general assembly in New York. Photograph: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/APThose electoral victories \u2013 and the US takeover of Venezuela after capturing Nicol\u00e1s Maduro \u2013 have left just six Latin American countries under leftwing governments: regional heavyweights Brazil and Mexico, small Uruguay and Guatemala, and the isolated regimes of Cuba and Nicaragua.On Sunday, Brazilians go to the polls in a presidential election that many believe will determine more than Latin America\u2019s largest country\u2019s fate for the next four years.Supporters Lula gather at a political rally in S\u00e3o Paulo. Photograph: Brian Snyder/ReutersGiven Mexico\u2019s geographic proximity and unique economic relationship with the US, analysts see Brazil as perhaps the last country in the region still capable of saying \u201cno\u201d to Trump\u2019s whims \u2013 something that could change dramatically depending on the election result.Polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old leftist incumbent who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, 45, the far-right senator son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.\u201cTrump really does take seriously the idea that the Americas should be his back yard,\u201d said Pedro Telles, a professor at the School of International Relations at Brazil\u2019s FGV university.President Claudia Sheinbaum leads her morning press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City, marking two years in office. Photograph: Luis Marin/Clasos/Zuma Press/Shutterstock\u201cMexico will remain relevant, and its president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is one of the most popular leftwing leaders. But if Fl\u00e1vio wins, it would be a real blow to the left and a major boost to the far-right agenda globally,\u201d added Telles.\u201cThere is a lot at stake,\u201d said Sandra Borda Guzm\u00e1n, an associate professor of political science at Colombia\u2019s Universidad de los Andes. \u201cInstead of taking the opportunity to expand our region\u2019s autonomy, a far-right victory would align the region unconditionally with the dictates of the US,\u201d she added.A street vendor sells campaign flags of the presidential candidates Bolsonaro and Lula. Photograph: Eraldo Peres/APLula and Bolsonaro differ sharply on the US, including over what has become Trump\u2019s main foreign policy for the region: the so-called \u201cwar on drugs\u201d used to justify dozens of airstrikes on boats that have killed more than 230 people and joint operations involving US military personnel on land.While Bolsonaro has pledged to join the Shield of the Americas and to follow an \u201ciron fist\u201d approach to crime, Lula has raised concerns about sovereignty and said it is \u201csad to see the inferiority complex of Latin American presidents\u201d who are part of the Trump-created coalition.Lula and Trump\u2019s relationship has swung between not speaking and public displays of warmth, but it is currently at a low point, with the Brazilian president and Democratic members of the US Congress accusing Washington of trying to interfere in Bolsonaro\u2019s favour.\u201cBrazil is a big prize,\u201d said Michael Shifter, adjunct professor at Georgetown University\u2019s School of Foreign Service, adding that amid endless conflicts in Iran, Ukraine and Israel-Palestine, \u201cUS foreign policy is going very badly in the rest of the world.\u201dA victory for Bolsonaro in Brazil, he said, would be used \u201ctriumphantly\u201d by Trump for producing an \u201calmost completely aligned region\u201d.At the latest Shield of the Americas meeting, Trump made clear that it was not all about security. The US president also referred to the \u201ctremendous natural wealth\u201d of Latin American countries, which he said could not \u201cbe taken over by hostile outside powers\u201d \u2013 widely understood as a reference to China.Posters for Lula in the streets of the Cajazeiras neighborhood in Salvador, Bahia state. Photograph: Amanda Cotrim/AFP/Getty ImagesPrivileged access to Brazil\u2019s rare earths and critical minerals was one of the conditions Washington imposed in exchange for not applying tariffs, which Lula rejected. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has offered those natural resources as the \u201csolution\u201d to help the US \u201cbreak its dependence on China\u201d.\u201cDemocracy is also kind of on the line here,\u201d added Shifter, noting that Bolsonaro was only running because his father cannot \u2013 Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest after being convicted of attempting a coup to overturn his defeat by Lula in the 2022 election.\u201cSo it\u2019s not just a question of one more country moving to the right, but of a right that has a very problematic relationship with democracy,\u201d he said.As in recent elections across Latin America, the race includes other candidates but is polarised between two leading candidates. Lula and Bolsonaro have alternated as frontrunners in the final stretch, making the outcome unpredictable; if neither wins 50% plus one of the votes, there will be a runoff on 25 October.Bolsonaro\u2019s only previous bid for an executive role in government ended ignominiously when he took fourth place in Rio\u2019s 2016 mayoral race. But analysts say there are several reasons why a congressman best known for his family name and corruption allegations \u2013 some shelved, others still under investigation \u2013 has emerged as a serious challenger to a three-time president.Unemployment, poverty and inflation have fallen, and average incomes have risen, but so has household debt \u2013 something many attribute to online betting, which the older Bolsonaro left unregulated and Lula banned days before the vote.The incumbent\u2019s campaign has also been hit by corruption allegations \u2013 still under investigation \u2013 involving his son and a former aide, while a scandal involving supreme court justices with no connection to Lula may have rubbed off on the president.Bolsonaro waves at supporters during a campaign rally at the S\u00e3o Paulo Municipal Market in S\u00e3o Paulo. Photograph: Miguel Schincariol/AFP/Getty ImagesMany therefore see Bolsonaro\u2019s support as coming both from a simple transfer of his father\u2019s voter base and from an anti-Lula vote.\u201cI\u2019m going to vote for Fl\u00e1vio, but not because I think he\u2019s the best option,\u201d said Bruna Arguello, 34, a businesswoman from Santana de Parna\u00edba, whose first choice would be Ronaldo Caiado, a far-right former governor of Goi\u00e1s, polling at 4%. \u201cUnfortunately, he has no chance of winning, so I\u2019m going with Fl\u00e1vio so we can get Lula out,\u201d she said.The presidential candidate for the Social Democratic party (PSD), Ronaldo Caiado, speaks at a press conference in Rio de Janeiro on Thursday. Photograph: Andre Coelho/EPAActor Docy Moreira, 59, will vote for Lula. In 2018, she was so dismayed by Jair Bolsonaro\u2019s election that she decided to leave her home town of Belo Horizonte, where two-thirds of voters backed the far-right leader. \u201cI couldn\u2019t understand how people, including the vast majority of my family, were choosing so much violence and authoritarianism,\u201d she said.She Googled which cities had given Bolsonaro the lowest share of the vote, chose one about 1,550 miles away and moved north to Lu\u00eds Correia, in Piau\u00ed.She eventually returned home, and most of her family will now vote for Bolsonaro\u2019s son. Still, Moreira remains confident Lula will win.\u201cIf not, it will be devastating, but I\u2019m not going to move again. I\u2019m stronger now. 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