President Trump and the AI industry have co-signed one of the biggest economic and technological wagers of all time.

• If it goes right: A new age of abundance — explosive productivity, staggering wealth and a generational leap in American power.

• If it goes wrong: A catastrophic bust that destroys capital and jobs and, in the words of several involved, threatens widespread human harm.

Why it matters: Neither Trump nor the AI titans have plausible deniability. Their fortunes have become so tightly bound that success will be shared — and failure impossible to disown.

The big picture: Trump and Big AI have fused their futures around four enormous bets.

1. The economic bet: That trillions poured into chips, data centers and power will create a productivity engine powerful enough to fuel a new Industrial Revolution.

• AI infrastructure spending is projected to reach $10.3 trillion by 2032, but the payoff remains unproven: One analysis found hyperscalers have spent nearly $1 trillion more on AI since 2024 than AI has generated in revenue.

• The promise sold by Trump and his tech allies is a new era of growth and abundance. The peril is a historic misallocation of capital on a scale few industries have ever seen.

2. The regulation bet: That Washington can clear the runway for an AI takeoff while leaving the companies largely responsible for policing themselves.

• The new White House accord signed by Trump and the AI giants enshrines voluntary safeguards, company-led testing and third-party reviews instead of new federal mandates.

• The promise is American dominance over China. The peril is that self-regulation fails, forcing Washington to intervene only after damage has already been inflicted.

3. The safety bet: That AI can grow vastly more powerful without becoming vastly harder to control.

4. The political bet: That Trump and Big AI can become inseparable without making each other even more toxic.

• Trump has staked his legacy on winning the AI race — dismissing fears about data centers costing Republicans in the midterms — while the industry has staked billions on the policy environment he's creating.

• The promise is that Trump and Big AI become partners in the defining technological transformation of the century. The peril is that every AI failure, disruption or backlash becomes a liability they share.

The bottom line: Trump and the AI industry are asking the country for a leap of faith at a uniquely fragile moment for both.

• The AI industry faces an even more basic credibility problem: A new Quinnipiac poll found 74% of Americans lack trust in AI executives, while only 34% believe AI will do more good than harm in their daily lives.

AI is moving fast. Axios AI+ keeps you ahead. Sign up free at Axios.com.