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(https://www.google.com/preferences/source?q=yahoo.com)                   (Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images)        Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images     President (https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/donald-trump#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) Trump and the (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/30/ai-constitution-trump-white-house#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) AI industry have co-signed one of the biggest economic and technological wagers of all time. If it goes right:  A new age of abundance — explosive productivity, staggering wealth and a generational leap in American power.   If it goes wrong: A catastrophic bust that destroys capital and jobs and, in the words of several involved, threatens (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/09/anthropic-ai-human-extinction-pdoom-safety-risks#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) widespread human harm .    Why it matters:  Neither Trump nor the AI titans have plausible deniability. Their fortunes have become so tightly bound that success will be shared — and failure impossible to disown.  The big picture:  Trump and Big AI have fused their futures around four enormous bets. Advertisement  Advertisement    Advertisement  Advertisement    1. The economic bet:  That trillions poured into chips, data centers and power will create a productivity engine powerful enough to fuel a new Industrial Revolution. AI infrastructure spending is projected to reach (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/24/ai-private-credit-capital-grab#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) $10.3 trillion by 2032, but the (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/30/ai-profits-spending-hyperscalers#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) payoff remains unproven : One analysis found hyperscalers have spent nearly $1 trillion more on AI since 2024 than AI has generated in revenue.   The promise sold by Trump and his tech allies is a new era of growth and abundance. The peril is a historic misallocation of capital on a scale few industries have ever seen.    2. The regulation bet:  That Washington can clear the runway for an AI takeoff while leaving the companies largely responsible for policing themselves. The new White House accord signed by Trump and the AI giants enshrines voluntary safeguards, company-led testing and third-party reviews instead of new federal mandates.   The promise is American dominance over China. The peril is that self-regulation fails, forcing Washington to intervene only after damage has already been inflicted.    Advertisement  Advertisement    3. The safety bet:  That AI can grow vastly more powerful without becoming vastly harder to control. Many of the most dire safety warnings come from (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/09/anthropic-insiders-warn-ai-could-kill-all-humans#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) AI researchers themselves. (https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/anthropic-warns-ai-may-pose-existential-risks-humanity-ipo-filing-2026-09-29/) Anthropic's own IPO prospectus contemplates scenarios in which advanced AI kills humanity.   The promise is almost limitless: superintelligent systems that help cure diseases and (https://www.axios.com/2025/12/31/2025-ai-scientific-breakthroughs#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) accelerate scientific discovery . The peril is (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/22/ai-rsi-meaning-recursive-self-improvement-doom#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) self-improving AI that evolves faster than its creators can comprehend or contain.    4. The political bet:  That Trump and Big AI can become inseparable without making each other even more toxic. Trump has staked his legacy on winning the AI race — dismissing fears about data centers (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/15/trump-pollster-data-center-republicans-midterm-election#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) costing Republicans in the midterms — while the industry has staked billions on the policy environment he's creating.   The promise is that Trump and Big AI become partners in the defining technological transformation of the century. The peril is that every AI failure, disruption or backlash becomes a liability they share.    Advertisement  Advertisement    The bottom line:  Trump and the AI industry are asking the country for a leap of faith at a uniquely fragile moment for both. Americans are deeply dissatisfied with both (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/30/ai-gasoline-growth-confidence-fed#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) the economy and (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/15/trump-dangerous-corrupt-majority-new-poll#utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=subs-partner-yahoo-finance-AI) Trump's presidency , with his approval rating plunging to (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-approval-falls-career-low-32-high-costs-bite-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2026-09-21/) record lows ahead of a potentially disastrous midterm season.   The AI industry faces an even more basic credibility problem: A new (https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3969) Quinnipiac poll found 74% of Americans lack trust in AI executives, while only 34% believe AI will do more good than harm in their daily lives.    AI is moving fast. Axios AI+ keeps you ahead. 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