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                    "Jessica Bell, a real estate agent with RE/MAX, speaks with prospective buyer Rachel Jordan in a Caledonia home listed for sale in March in this Dispatch file photo. Over the last five years, median home prices in the Golden Triangle have risen by as much as $103,000, leaving some residents feeling like homeownership is never going to be a reality. Dispatch File Photo\t\n\t\t\tYolanda Young was born and raised in Starkville. If it were up to her, she\u2019d live in Starkville for the rest of her life.\nBut because her apartment complex is no longer participating in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Housing Choice Voucher Program, Young doesn\u2019t know how much longer she can stay there once her lease is up in January.\n\u201cIt\u2019s a concern to me that I may not be able to find a place,\u201d Young told The Dispatch. \u201c\u2026 (There) was never a time that I had to go back to my mama\u2019s house. (There) never was a time when I had to put my things in storage and go stay with anybody. \u2026 I\u2019m still out here looking, and I don\u2019t know when, and I don\u2019t know where, but I (hope) something is out there for me.\u201d\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tYolanda Young looks through listings of Section 8 housing available in Starkville Aug. 31 at her apartment. Young has lived in Starkville her entire life, but with her apartment no longer accepting Section 8 housing assistance in January, she isn\u2019t sure where she\u2019s going to move. Braden Simmons/Dispatch Staff\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\nSince she began renting her apartment in 2023, Young said her rent rose from $925 to $1,056. Without the assistance from HUD lowering her share to about $300, Young said she would have no way to afford her rent, groceries and other living expenses on her fixed income.\nYoung is not the only one feeling the strain. Starkville Strong Executive Director Brandi Herrington said she believes there is a top-down effect pushing on all Starkville residents.\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tBrandi Herrington\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\n\u201cIn the time that we\u2019re in with cost of living being high and incomes not going as far, more people can relate to the struggle,\u201d Herrington told The Dispatch. \u201c\u2026 We\u2019re seeing more people struggling that haven\u2019t before.\u201d\nAccording to HUD data, in 2021 fair market value to rent a three-bedroom apartment in Lowndes County was $1,008, Oktibbeha County was $1,017 and Clay County was $1,001. For 2026, those numbers rose to $1,278, $1,341 and $1,131, respectively.\nRent has gone up across the region in the last five years, but Herrington said Starkville is experiencing \u201cexacerbated\u201d rental increases because it is a college town.\nWith at least four affordable housing apartment complexes closing in Starkville this year, Herrington said that squeeze has pushed more residents who were on the brink of homelessness into serious struggles.\n\u201cThe options (for affordable housing) are absolutely limited. \u2026 It\u2019s a problem that if we don\u2019t address, we\u2019re going to end up with tent cities and a migrating homeless population,\u201d Herrington said. \u201cWe have a homeless population already that\u2019s growing every week. \u2026 So this is a snowballing thing that has momentum.\u201d\nPrices vs wages by the numbers\nMelissa Duncan-Thomas has been a renter in Columbus since she graduated from college in 2011 and expected to be one for the rest of her life. But when she married her husband, Jesse Thomas three years ago, their two-income household made purchasing a home feel more feasible.\n\u201cThe prices \u2026 had gone up so much that if we moved into a space that was even a comparable size to (our current) apartment \u2026 it was going to double our rent price,\u201d Duncan-Thomas said. \u201cAnd that was very insane to me to realize. And also something that I was like, \u2018Oh, I just can\u2019t. We\u2019re just not going to make that happen.\u2019\u201d\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tMelissa Duncan-Thomas scrolls through housing listings in Columbus on Aug. 30 on her computer at her apartment in downtown Columbus. Duncan-Thomas, who has been a renter for the last 15 years, said she has been looking to purchase a home with her husband but isn\u2019t sure if she\u2019ll ever be able to afford one with rising housing prices. Braden Simmons/Dispatch Staff\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\nHome prices and interest rates have jumped since 2021, but average wages in the region aren\u2019t keeping up.\nIn Oktibbeha County, the median sales price for a home in the first six months of 2021 compared to the first six of 2026 increased from $237,000 to $340,000, according to data from the Greater Golden Triangle Realtors. In Lowndes County, those prices have risen from $183,100 to $229,000 over that same time period. In Clay County, it\u2019s gone from $108,000 to $166,000.\nIn 2021, with an average interest rate of roughly 3% and a 3.5% down payment, the average 30-year monthly mortgage payment for a home in Lowndes County was about $744, and in Oktibbeha County it was $964. In Clay County, it was $439.40.\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\nHUD recommends mortgage costs should not exceed 31% of your gross effective income.\nThat means to afford the average mortgage in 2021 in Lowndes County, you would need to earn a monthly income of about $2,400. In Oktibbeha County, you would need to earn about $3,110 per month. In Clay County, you would need $1,417.45 per month.\nIn the first quarter of 2021, average monthly wages covered those costs across the region. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average monthly wage was roughly $3,404 in Lowndes County, $3,084 in Oktibbeha County and $2,816 in Clay County.\nBy comparison, Tyler Farnham, vice president of JTS and Co. Mortgage Professionals, said current average down payments in the Golden Triangle sit between 3.5% and 5% of the home price, with average interest rates on a home loan sitting at roughly 7%.\nSo on a 30-year loan in 2026 with a 3.5% down payment and 7% interest, average mortgage payment jumps to roughly $1,470 in Lowndes County. In Oktibbeha County, it would be $2,182. In Clay County, it would be $1,065.\nTo stay under HUD\u2019s recommended 31% threshold for mortgage costs, in Lowndes County you would need to earn a monthly income of about $4,741.\nIn Oktibbeha County, you would need to earn about $6,234 per month, and in Clay County you would need to earn about $3,435 per month.\nThrough the first quarter of 2026, however, average monthly wages have failed to keep up, especially in Lowndes and Oktibbeha counties, where BLS reported averages of $4,704 and $3,784, respectively. Clay County reported an average monthly wage of $3,572.\nSupply and demand\nColin Krieger, a Realtor with RE/MAX in Columbus, said one of the primary contributors to rising house prices is limited stock of mid-range houses driven by high interest rates, which dissuades residents from upgrading their starter homes and, as a byproduct, deters new development in the lower price point.\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tColin Krieger\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\n\u201cMost new construction of single-family residential homes is in the higher price points because there\u2019s still such a demand at the higher price point that there\u2019s no real incentive for them to build smaller homes,\u201d Krieger told The Dispatch.\nKrieger said the real estate market itself is healthy, with homes regularly selling within the expected time for a fair market value. Most of those sales are primarily driven by \u201cluxury homes\u201d going to retirees or those moving to the region for high-paying industry jobs.\nKrieger said potential home buyers may need to adjust their expectations for size and location of a home if they want to get on the property ladder.\nBut he understands why some may choose to keep renting when mortgage payments are comparable to a monthly rent.\nDuncan-Thomas and her husband plan to make another run at home buying in January, but with the uncertainty of the market, she\u2019s not optimistic.\n\u201cI\u2019m not going to call it a reality until it\u2019s an actual reality because \u2026 I feel almost like it\u2019s a guarantee that the prices are going to fluctuate back up,\u201d Duncan-Thomas said. \u201cLike I haven\u2019t seen any signs over the past five years that tell me like, \u2018Oh yeah, these are going to stay fine.\u2019\u201d\nPotential solutions\nKen Johnson, professor of finance and endowed chair of real estate at the University of Mississippi, said while affordable housing is a national issue, it\u2019s one that requires local solutions. The first step is in enticing more development at varying price points.\nJohnson said the increased housing supply will cause a trickle-down effect, lowering home price points at all ranges.\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tKen Johnson\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\n\u201cIf a developer wants to develop multifamily (homes) in the (Golden) Triangle, let them do it,\u201d Johnson said. \u201cBecause they will oversupply. It\u2019s the same thing. In the end, it\u2019s the number of roofs to live under, either to rent or to own. \u2026 They\u2019re not providing enough supply from the market side. That\u2019s the overall problem. \u2026 You have got to get more rental units, more roofs for people to live under, more doors for people to live behind, before you can kind of flatten out prices.\u201d\nKrieger said the overall real estate supply in the Golden Triangle has increased regionally over the last couple of years.\nJohnson, who predicts the Golden Triangle region will see an influx of new residents as the state phases out income tax requirements through 2030, believes increased development will come naturally as the region\u2019s population grows.\n\u201cIn the last 10 years, population growth in the Golden Triangle has mostly been flat,\u201d Johnson said. \u201c\u2026 But my gut feeling is, the next 10 years, it\u2019s not going to be flat. The state of Mississippi, we\u2019re lowering our income tax requirement with a goal towards working to zero, very much like Tennessee and Florida. And when a state can economically afford that, they usually have a population boom. \u2026 So you\u2019ll have a lot of economic benefits that are going to follow, at least for a decade or two or more.\u201d\nWith that projected growth on the horizon, Johnson said municipalities need to encourage every housing development opportunity headed their way not only to meet current needs but impending needs too.\n\u201cWe\u2019re wrestling to nibble around the edges and try to get affordable housing out there,\u201d Johnson said. \u201cAnd I guess my strongest suggestion is yes, it\u2019s good to cut red tape. It\u2019s good to incentivize builders. But \u2026 let developers build what they want. \u2026 Historically, they will then overdevelop, and that overdevelopment will put quick downward pressure on home prices and also on rental units.\u201d\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tMelissa Duncan-Thomas scrolls through Zillow house listings Aug. 30 in her apartment in downtown Columbus. Since marrying her husband three years ago, Duncan-Thomas has been looking to purchase a home, but even now as a dual-income household, she doesn\u2019t know if they\u2019ll ever be able to afford a home with the way housing prices in the area are going. Braden Simmons/Dispatch Staff\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n      \n      \n        Quality, in-depth journalism is essential to a healthy community. The Dispatch brings you the most complete reporting and insightful commentary in the Golden Triangle, but we need your help to continue our efforts. In the past week, our reporters have posted 30 articles to cdispatch.com. Please consider subscribing to our website for only $2.30 per week to help support local journalism and our community."
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