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                    "Whatever awaits him this coming November, few politicians could claim to have the endurance, bloody mindedness and sense of granite staying power than Israel\u2019s Benjamin Netanyahu.\u00a0 With some prowess, he has wooed, deceived, and lied his way to power, and, for the most part, stayed the course for the best part of a generation. He bloomed in arid soil when sceptics thought him dead.\u00a0 He offers lessons of Machiavellian proportions almost unsurpassed.\u00a0\nWhat, then, of being found out for falling short ahead of the 27th October elections?\u00a0 Errors in the making, the sundering blunder to soil the image of strength?\u00a0 History offers the guidance of tragic and foolish mistakes.\u00a0 The British failure to anticipate their routing in Singapore by the Imperial Japanese Army in 1942 is always a topic of interest (they wagered on a sea attack, not a jungle incursion); even, dare one say, the failure of the United States to anticipate an attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941 despite doing much to aggravate a power that had done so much to put the Western powers on edge.\u00a0 Did, in other words, the individual in a position of power and influence know and, for whatever said reasons, not take the threat seriously?\u00a0 Self-confidence, or, as the ancient Greeks might put it, hubris, bulks complacency and places it on a pedestal.\u00a0 This is the case being made about Netanyahu.\u00a0 And more besides.\nThe latest bruising claim by Haaretz, based on research for a book Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment by Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval, involving \u201cdozens of sources in Israel and worldwide, including very senior officials, as well as sound recordings, internal documents and recordings\u201d, is chastening. Netanyahu was, according to the authors, told, in unequivocal terms, that an attack by Hamas was being planned.\u00a0 \nAccording to the report, a 45-minute conversation took place between UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ) and Netanyahu, in which the Emirati leader warned of the intentions of the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar that could lead to an exaction of bloodiness from Israel and a destabilising of the Abraham Accords.\nThis came after the stymieing of negotiations between Hamas and Netanyahu\u2019s office that had begun in 2023 in pursuit of a temporary truce, known as a hudna, that would pave the way for a more durable arrangement regarding the Gaza Strip.\u00a0 Ghazi Hamad took the lead for Hamas, as he did in 2014 when talks are also said to have taken place between Netanyahu and Hamas, unbeknown to security officials.\u00a0\u00a0\nREAD:\u00a0UN voices \u2018deep concern\u2019 over Israeli strikes killing civilians across Gaza\nThe paper notes the views of Israeli President Isaac Herzog on MBZ on the escalation taking place in the West Bank and Gaza in September 2023.\u00a0 Bin Zayed is said to have, according to Herzog, spoken to him \u201cabout this often in the months leading to the war.\u201d\u00a0 He \u201cconstantly conveyed messages that the situation needed to be defused.\u00a0 He even sent a special envoy to Israel who met with the prime minister.\u00a0 The emir seemed to sense that the area was on the verge of explosion.\u201d\nTo dilute the scorching acid in the mix, a senior Fatah official, cast in the role of \u201cCoal Eyes\u201d to both Hamas and the internal intelligence agency Shin Bet, was brought in.\u00a0 Talks proceeded.\u00a0 It seemed that some semblance of an agreement was made.\u00a0 \u201cThe atmosphere was so optimistic that Fatah\u2019s Coal Eyes repeatedly reported that an agreement with Israel was closer than ever and that both sides viewed the proposals as \u2018feasible options.\u2019\u201d\u00a0\u00a0\nNetanyahu, however, baulked.\u00a0 \u201cPerhaps,\u201d speculate the logically minded scribblers, \u201che did so out of fear of reaching an agreement with Hamas, or perhaps out of fear from the reaction of his extremist partners in his new government.\u201d\u00a0 His right-wing coalition partners, cut and dried fanatics as they are, were not likely to have approved.\u00a0 Sinwar remained sly, fielding his options: he was still conducting negotiations with Hezbollah and Iran in the context of an attack on Israel.\u00a0 \u201cHe simply vanished from our radar, evaporated,\u201d Haaretz records a senior Shin Bet official as saying.\u00a0 The journalists float the suggestion that Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, bound in that axis of growling resistance, thought Israel vulnerable at that particular point in time. \u201cIn September 2023, Coal Eyes has a meeting with Sinwar: \u2018Tell the Israelis that if they don\u2019t make progress, I\u2019m preparing a huge surprise for them.\u2019\u00a0 They could expect a \u2018zilzal\u2019 (earthquake).\u201d\nEvents transpire with dull inevitability, but Coal Eyes eventually readies himself to tell Shin Bet about the ominous developments.\u00a0 Its head, Ronen Bet, seeks Netanyahu for discussions.\u00a0 Briefings take place on the \u201cearthquake\u201d threat.\u00a0 The defence establishment remained largely phlegmatic, almost cocky. The threat by Sinwar was, according to an Israeli intelligence official, something of a prodding tease, a scouting exercise: \u201cdue to being tired about Israel\u2019s delays, placing pressure on seeking an arrangement and not so eager to start a war.\u00a0 Or, as we prefer to think, it was part of his \u2018Great Deception\u2019 plan, and he wanted to test the IDF\u2019s readiness.\u201d\nREAD:\u00a0Netanyahu warned by UAE president before Oct. 7 events, failed to brief security chiefs: Haaretz\u00a0\nTo cloud matters further for Netanyahu, the Egyptian intelligence chief Gen. Abbas Kamel is also said to have warned the PM\u2019s office that Hamas was readying to launch \u201csomething unusual, a terrifying operation.\u201d\u00a0 The CIA-director William Burns is also said to have been told by bin Zayed about \u201csomething there [\u2026] about to explode.\u201d\u00a0 The jam spread of imminent attack, in other words, becomes harder to avoid.\u00a0 \nFollowing the 7th October 2023 attack, Netanyahu, according to a report by Smadar Perry writing for Ynet, is said to have told Kamel that, \u201cIn Gaza, we are in the picture, we are in control.\u00a0 Our problem is with the West Bank, and that\u2019s where we are diverting our forces.\u201d\nThe PM\u2019s office poured corrosive scorn on the Haaretz report, describing it as \u201ca complete lie.\u00a0 Prime Minister Netanyahu did not speak with the president of the United Arab Emirates during the period in question and did not receive a warning from him.\u201d\u00a0 The opposition leaders thought far more of the revelations, eager to pluck the fruits of electoral opportunity.\u00a0 \u201cNetanyahu bears personal and direct responsibility for the failure that led to the deaths of thousands of Israelis on his watch,\u201d former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stated.\u00a0 \u201cHis ignoring of the warnings is criminal negligence, and therefore he is doing everything to prevent the establishment of a state commission of inquiry that will expose the truth.\u201d\nIn a joint statement, opposition leaders Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Golan and Avigdor Lieberman demanded that, \u201cThe Israeli public is entitled to know: What did Netanyahu know, and when did he know, why he didn\u2019t update the security establishment, and why he didn\u2019t act to protect Israeli civilians?\u201d\u00a0 Reasons await from the wily Netanyahu, a man so confident he thought he could outwit oppressive precedent and damn Clio.\u00a0 As with previous disasters in history, he may well have been found out.\nOPINION:\u00a0A new sanctions regime: Targeting Israel\u2019s West Bank settlements\nThe views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor."
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