Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 forecast suggests Republicans are unlikely to gain much from having had the upper hand in redistricting the congressional puzzle pieces around the country.

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Frontrunner: Decision Desk HQ’s forecast finds that redistricting is unlikely to be the majority-making salve that Republicans hoped for in the 2026 midterms.

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Quick summary:

“Redistricting will save the Republicans’ House majority.” This proposition sucked up a significant portion of the political oxygen in the 2026 midterm cycle. It began last year, when President Donald Trump and his allies encouraged GOP-run states to pursue congressional redraws. Democrats attempted to counter Republican efforts where they could, but their options proved more limited than those of their GOP rivals. The Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais then further amplified the redistricting wars and created new opportunities for Republicans to redraw maps in the Deep South.

But 50 days out from the November election (!), the Republicans’ mapmaking edge looks less and less likely to overcome the gravitational pull of larger electoral forces. Namely, the downward pressure of President Donald Trump’s standing, as his approval rating now sits at about 40% in Decision Desk HQ’s approval polling average. Correspondingly, Republicans now trail Democrats about 49%-42% in Decision Desk HQ’s generic ballot average. These averages, as well as tons of trackers for individual races, can be found on DDHQ’s VOTES portal.

Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 forecast illustrates the effect of these broader electoral conditions. As of September 14, Democrats have about a 2 in 3 chance (68%) of capturing the U.S. House of Representatives. Across the forecast’s 1 million simulations, Democrats win an average seat majority of 229-206, which would amount to a 14-seat Democratic gain from the current 220-215 GOP majority (including vacancies with the party that previously held them).

If we then distinguish states by whether they redistricted their congressional lines, the forecast finds Democrats making an average gain of 13 seats in the 41 states with unchanged boundaries, and an average gain of 2 seats across the nine states that did make changes. Yes, you read that correctly. Even though seven of the nine altered states have new Republican-drawn maps, Democrats may actually make a small net gain in those places. (Because of rounding, the Democrats average a 14-seat gain overall — 14.46 — even as they average about a 2-seat gain in the redistricted states and a 13-seat gain in the unchanged states.)

The Democrats’ path to a majority mainly runs through the states that did not redistrict ahead of 2026. In our forecast for the unchanged states, Democrats win an average of nearly 150 seats, up from the 137 they currently control. Meanwhile, the redistricted states do not come close to offsetting that shift. In those nine states, Democrats win a small gain, on average, going from 78 to about 80 seats. (Due to recent court decisions regarding a replacement map drawn by the GOP in 2025, Missouri appears likely to use the same lines as it did in 2022 and 2024. We included the state in the unchanged category, but Decision Desk HQ has frozen its Missouri forecast data until the state’s situation is finalized. Democrats would gain at least one more seat — think 230 overall — if the current Missouri map remains in place.)

In the table below, I lay out the maximum gains in each redistricted state that the favored party could have hoped for based on these new lines. Overall, the maximum potential net change was a Republican gain of 10. But with an average Democratic net gain of almost two seats in these nine states, the difference between the forecast’s average outcome and that potential change amounts to a shortfall of nearly 12 seats for Republicans.

Texas’s remap in the summer of 2025 kicked off the cycle’s redistricting conflict, with the GOP targeting as many as five Democratic-held seats. But right now, Texas Republicans are averaging a bit under a two-seat gain, roughly three seats short of their ideal. California Democrats responded to Texas’s redraw by pushing through a constitutional amendment — later approved by a November 2025 statewide vote — that implemented a gerrymander targeting five GOP-held seats. At present, California Democrats are averaging about a four-seat gain in our forecast, about one seat shy of their maximal goal. In the other two states with more than one targeted seat — Florida and Ohio — the Republican remaps aimed to add as many as seven seats. At present, though, the average net change across the two states is essentially zero.

Now, there are a few nuances to consider with this analysis. In probabilistic terms, we can talk about Republicans gaining an average of 1.6 seats in Texas. But in reality, the election outcome is binary — a party either wins or loses, resulting in it capturing one seat or none. Moreover, these figures are based on the average of win-loss outcomes across 1 million simulations, which contain a range of potentially close or more lopsided results. In terms of the topline probability of victory, a vote percentage victory of 50.1%-49.9% for one party’s candidate counts the same as a 55%-45% win. We can then sum the probabilities of all seats in a state to see each party’s average seat result across all simulations. But a party having a 60% chance of winning still leaves a 40% chance that the other party will end up victorious.

It’s also worth noting that individual seat probabilities paint a slightly better picture for Republicans than the aggregate probabilities. That is, if you just look at the favored candidate in races across the nine redistricted states, Republicans have at least a slight advantage in enough seats for a net gain of two seats. That’s a net improvement of four seats for the GOP compared with the average seats won in our simulations in the nine redistricted states.

But this seeming discrepancy between a seat calculation based on which party is favored in the forecast (advantage Republicans) and the aggregate probabilities (advantage Democrats) results from the tendency for electoral outcomes to be at least somewhat correlated. Take North Carolina. There, Republicans redrew one purple seat and one red seat in the eastern part of the state by trading areas between them to create two red-leaning districts. This left Democratic Rep. Don Davis in an altered 1st District that Trump would have carried by about 12 points in 2024.

Yet Davis has a 51% chance of winning in our forecast, effectively a coin flip. And in the scenarios in which he does win, Democrats also often win the Trump +10 11th District in western North Carolina, where they have just shy of a 40% shot of winning. This helps explain why Democrats actually average about a one-seat gain in North Carolina despite the two most competitive seats being a toss-up and a Lean Republican seat (Democrats also have a small chance of victory in a few other seats that contributes to that average shift in their direction). And more broadly, if the election proves favorable enough for Democrats to win those two North Carolina seats, it also may be good enough for them to win all five targeted seats in California.

Additionally, none of this means that the gerrymandering battle hasn’t mattered — just that its ultimate impact on this midterm is limited by the larger electoral situation. Without redistricting, Democrats would definitely have held onto seats in Tennessee and Louisiana that they will now very likely lose. And even if Texas Republicans are undershooting their 5-seat goal, they are averaging around a gain of two seats that they might not have had otherwise.

Now, let’s take a quick tour of the redistricted states to see what’s behind these topline numbers that suggest the new lines will have only a limited net impact.

California Democrats average about a four-seat gain in our forecast. Most of that change comes via highly likely victories in three seats defended by or currently held by Republican incumbents — the 1st, 6th, and 38th districts.1

But while favored, Democrats don’t have a sure pickup in the new 22nd District, where Republican Rep. David Valadao is a smaller underdog (about a 1 in 4 shot of winning). Valadao has a history of outperforming the Republican presidential baseline, and the Democratic-drawn map left Valadao on turf that Trump narrowly would have won in 2024. A potential Republican win there, as well outside shots in districts such as the 13th, 45th, and GOP-held 48th help keep Democrats from averaging the full-on five-seat gain they want in California.

Meanwhile, it turns out not everything is bigger in Texas, at least when it comes to projected Republican gains. Despite targeting five Democratic-held seats, the GOP is not even quite averaging a net gain of two seats in the Lone Star State in our forecast.

As for why Texas Republicans aren’t adding as many seats as they hoped, potential Democratic holds (or gains) in red-leaning but heavily Latino districts in South Texas are the chief factor. First, Republicans look fairly unlikely to oust Rep. Henry Cuellar, arguably the most conservative Democrat left in the House. His fellow incumbent, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, is also somewhat favored to win reelection, though only with a 2 in 3 chance. And beyond those two, Democrats still have around a 1 in 3 shot of holding onto the newly-drawn 35th District around San Antonio. Similarly, they also have around a 1 in 3 chance of defeating two-term GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the 15th District. While Trump would have won that seat by roughly 18 points under the new lines, he only would have won it by about 2 points in 2020. Additionally, Democrats have about a 1 in 5 chance of flipping the 23rd District, where GOP nominee Brandon Herrera has courted controversy with many of his pronouncements.

A larger Republican underperformance could be on tap in Florida, where redistricting targeted as many as four Democratic-held seats. But at the moment, the average shift in our forecast for Florida is about zero seats. Two Democratic incumbents now seeking reelection in Trump-won seats — Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz — are both slight favorites to hold on. Another Democrat, Rep. Darren Soto, is an underdog, but has nearly a 2 in 5 shot of surviving despite seeking reelection in what is now a Trump +18 constituency.

But what’s also helping Democrats’ average seat total is that they have a chance, even as underdogs, of winning other Sunshine State seats. This includes the other targeted Democratic seat, the now-open 22nd District, as well as at least six other GOP-controlled seats. Helpfully for Republicans, scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Cory Mills lost his primary in the 7th District, which could help the party’s chances of retaining the seat.

Similar to Florida, Ohio’s new map averages almost no change in our forecast. Republicans clearly targeted Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who only barely won reelection in 2024, but she has a 2 in 3 shot of winning a rematch against Republican Derek Merrin.

Two other GOP targets are also favored: Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes, whose seat actually got a tiny bit bluer as part of the new map, and Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman, whose Cincinnati-area seat went from blue-leaning to purple on the whole. Republicans are also troubled by the presence of GOP Rep. Max Miller, who faces allegations of domestic abuse against his wife that have turned his red-leaning seat into a toss-up in our forecast.

We mentioned North Carolina above, but the table below lays out the main Republican target — the 1st District – and the GOP-held seat that looks pretty competitive — the 11th District.

Democrats are actually averaging about a one-seat gain in North Carolina despite the effort to oust Davis. Still, helpfully for Republicans, GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards withdrew as the nominee in the latter seat after an ethics investigation into his behavior toward young women staffers. Democrats still have a real shot at flipping the Asheville-based seat, but the situation might have deteriorated further for the GOP had Edwards remained in the race.

The other redistricted state with a competitive seat is Alabama, where Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures is an underdog to win reelection in the new 2nd District. Following the Callais decision, Alabama instituted a map the state had passed in 2023 in the face of a federal court order, but that the courts had rejected. This moved Figures from a Democratic-leaning seat with a population that was about half Black to a white-majority seat that Trump would have carried by about 14 points. Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques has around a 3 in 4 shot of defeating Figures, but the congressman has an outside shot of keeping his seat.

Three other states’ redistricting outcomes appear less in doubt. In Louisiana, Republicans are all but guaranteed to pick up the newly-drawn 6th District. In Tennessee, meanwhile, the GOP seems likely to flip the reconfigured 9th District and hold onto every other seat to move to a 9-0 advantage. But in traditionally red Utah, a state court decision compelled the adoption of a new congressional map with a safely Democratic seat around Salt Lake City.

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