Despite GOP redraws, forecast points to small gains for Democrats in redistricted states

Change in pre-election party makeup of U.S. House of Representatives and the average seat totals in Decision Desk HQ's 2026 election forecast, based on the total House, in the redistricted states, and in other states

Because of small differences from rounding, Democrats average a 14-seat gain overall, but about a 2- and 13-seat gain in the redistricted and unchanged states, respectively.
*Redistricted states: Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, Utah
†Other states include Missouri, which will likely be compelled by ongoing legal proceedings to use its current map rather than a new one drawn ahead of the 2026 election. DDHQ's has frozen Missouri's forecast until the situation is finalized.
Source: DDHQ Votes