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It lists three episodes. New wallets made $1.2 million hours before February's strike on Iran; by May, Bubblemaps had (https://decrypt.co/368255/polymarket-users-insider-trading-2-4-million-iran-predictions) traced nine linked accounts to $2.4 million of Iran bets that won 98% of the time. A U.S. Army master sergeant was charged over $400,000 of Polymarket profits on the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. And in April, suspected tampering with the weather sensors used to settle Polymarket contracts prompted Météo-France to file a police complaint.   Platform responses are "largely reactive," ESMA said, beginning after the profits are taken. Polymarket's chief legal officer, Neal Kumar, drew the opposite lesson from the Maduro case, arguing that, "It's not anonymous—you will be found just like this guy." (https://decrypt.co/368255/polymarket-users-insider-trading-2-4-million-iran-predictions/) Polymarket Users Spur Insider Trading Suspicions With $2.4 Million in Iran Prediction Wins  Why Europe has barely seen them  Prediction markets have not gained significant traction in the EU, ESMA said, putting that down to the rules rather than a lack of appetite. Event contracts can qualify as financial instruments under MiFID II, fall under MiCA, or count as gambling under national law. Where they are financial instruments they count as derivatives, and national rules mirroring ESMA's binary options intervention bar selling them to retail investors at all. Kalshi and Polymarket restrict users in some EU countries but not all, and "it is unclear why all EU Member States are not included," ESMA said. Both ban VPNs, but their "practical effectiveness" remains uncertain. Malta alone is drafting a framework. (https://myriad.markets) (Myriad: Crude oil's next move? Click to make your prediction.)    (https://myriad.markets) Myriad: Crude oil's next move? Click to make your prediction.   Volumes have surged since ESMA's data was collected. Its chart stops in November 2025 for Kalshi and January 2026 for Polymarket, at quarterly volumes of $8.8 billion and $12 billion. By June, The Block put their combined monthly volume at $44.8 billion in June, Kalshi alone taking $31.5 billion as the World Cup drew bettors in. ESMA reported that sports make up 73% of Kalshi's volume, while Polymarket splits across politics, sports and crypto.   The regulator cites a Wall Street Journal finding that 67% of Polymarket gains went to 0.1% of accounts, and a Bloomberg analysis that most users lose money. Washington has taken the opposite course. The CFTC has (https://decrypt.co/365889/cftc-prediction-markets-lawsuit-wisconsin) defended its jurisdiction against states and (https://decrypt.co/370656/cftc-rules-prediction-markets-ban-wagers-ouster-us-enemies) proposed barring war and assassination contracts, while it and the SEC bring crypto perps (https://decrypt.co/376936/sec-cftc-crypto-perps-trading-onshore) onshore . The argument there is over which contracts are acceptable, with CME's Terry Duffy and Kalshi's Luana Lopes Lara (https://decrypt.co/376158/tensions-flare-cme-kalshi-clash-prediction-markets-dc) clashing over manipulation at a CFTC roundtable in August.    (https://guce.yahoo.com/terms?locale=en-US) Terms  and (https://guce.yahoo.com/privacy-policy?locale=en-US) Privacy Policy   (https://guce.yahoo.com/privacy-dashboard?locale=en-US) Privacy Dashboard   (https://finance.yahoo.com/more-info) More Info      Recommended Stories  (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/well-timed-bets-polymarket-tied-185129275.html) (Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers) (Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers)   (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/well-timed-bets-polymarket-tied-185129275.html) (Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers) Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers  Associated Press • 5mo ago (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/POLA.PVT/) (POLA.PVT) POLA.PVT                 (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/federal-regulators-crack-down-suspicious-063925986.html) (Federal regulators crack down on suspicious prediction market bets - WSJ) (Federal regulators crack down on suspicious prediction market bets - WSJ)   (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/federal-regulators-crack-down-suspicious-063925986.html) (Federal regulators crack down on suspicious prediction market bets - WSJ) Federal regulators crack down on suspicious prediction market bets - WSJ  Investing.com • 3mo ago (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/POLA.PVT/) (POLA.PVT) POLA.PVT           (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USO/) (USO) USO                    (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-users-spur-insider-trading-185517072.html) (Polymarket Users Spur Insider Trading Suspicions With $2.4 Million in Iran Prediction Wins) (Polymarket Users Spur Insider Trading Suspicions With $2.4 Million in Iran Prediction Wins)   (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-users-spur-insider-trading-185517072.html) (Polymarket Users Spur Insider Trading Suspicions With $2.4 Million in Iran Prediction Wins) Polymarket Users Spur Insider Trading Suspicions With $2.4 Million in Iran Prediction Wins  decrypt • 3mo ago (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/POLA.PVT/) (POLA.PVT) POLA.PVT                 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-wagerers-predict-us-strike-181606218.html) (Polymarket Wagerers Predict US Strike on Iran by End of June) (Polymarket Wagerers Predict US Strike on Iran by End of June)   (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-wagerers-predict-us-strike-181606218.html) (Polymarket Wagerers Predict US Strike on Iran by End of June) Polymarket Wagerers Predict US Strike on Iran by End of June  Benzinga • 7mo ago      (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-insiders-net-2-4m-132555253.html) (Polymarket insiders net $2.4M on Iran war bets at 98% win rate) (Polymarket insiders net $2.4M on Iran war bets at 98% win rate)   (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-insiders-net-2-4m-132555253.html) (Polymarket insiders net $2.4M on Iran war bets at 98% win rate) Polymarket insiders net $2.4M on Iran war bets at 98% win rate  Quartz • 3mo ago      (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-users-stand-millions-us-170000366.html) (Polymarket users stand to make millions if US troops enter Iran, raising insider trading fears) (Polymarket users stand to make millions if US troops enter Iran, raising insider trading fears)   (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/polymarket-users-stand-millions-us-170000366.html) (Polymarket users stand to make millions if US troops enter Iran, raising insider trading fears) Polymarket users stand to make millions if US troops enter Iran, raising insider trading fears  Moneywise • 5mo ago      (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/spain-blocks-prediction-markets-kalshi-191411102.html) (Spain Blocks Prediction Markets Kalshi, Polymarket for Potential Gambling Law Violations) (Spain Blocks Prediction Markets Kalshi, Polymarket for Potential Gambling Law Violations)   (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/spain-blocks-prediction-markets-kalshi-191411102.html) (Spain Blocks Prediction Markets Kalshi, Polymarket for Potential Gambling Law Violations) Spain Blocks Prediction Markets Kalshi, Polymarket for Potential Gambling Law Violations  decrypt • 3mo ago (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/POLA.PVT/) (POLA.PVT) POLA.PVT                 (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/potential-insiders-made-600k-predicting-171731685.html) (Potential Insiders Made $600K Predicting US and Iran Ceasefire on Polymarket: Bubblemaps) (Potential Insiders Made $600K Predicting US and Iran Ceasefire on Polymarket: Bubblemaps)   (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/potential-insiders-made-600k-predicting-171731685.html) (Potential Insiders Made $600K Predicting US and Iran Ceasefire on Polymarket: Bubblemaps) Potential Insiders Made $600K Predicting US and Iran Ceasefire on Polymarket: Bubblemaps  decrypt • 5mo ago (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/POLA.PVT/) (POLA.PVT) POLA.PVT                   (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-market-user-made-436-230654302.html) (Prediction market user made $436,000 betting on Maduro capture) (Prediction market user made $436,000 betting on Maduro capture)   (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-market-user-made-436-230654302.html) (Prediction market user made $436,000 betting on Maduro capture) Prediction market user made $436,000 betting on Maduro capture  CBS News • 8mo ago      (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/prediction-markets-sparked-golden-age-090100130.html) (Prediction markets have sparked a golden age of insider trading—but the party may be coming to an end) (Prediction markets have sparked a golden age of insider trading—but the party may be coming to an end)   (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/prediction-markets-sparked-golden-age-090100130.html) (Prediction markets have sparked a golden age of insider trading—but the party may be coming to an end) Prediction markets have sparked a golden age of insider trading—but the party may be coming to an end  Fortune • 5mo ago               (https://finance.yahoo.com/)      Copyright © 2026 Yahoo. 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