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By (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/author/w-james-antle-iii/) W. James Antle III  Published September 3, 2026 7:00am ET |  Updated September 3, 2026 8:40am ET    (https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonexaminer.com%2Fnews%2Fcampaigns%2Fcongressional%2F4711218%2Fis-a-midterm-election-blue-wave-building%2F) (Facebook)       (https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonexaminer.com%2Fnews%2Fcampaigns%2Fcongressional%2F4711218%2Fis-a-midterm-election-blue-wave-building%2F&text=Is a blue wave building?) (X)      (Print)       (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0c337f796e66696f7831457f2c6d2c6e6079692c7b6d7a692c6e7965606865626b332a6e636875316478787c7f293f4d293e4a293e4a7b7b7b227b6d7f6465626b78636269746d616562697e226f6361293e4a62697b7f293e4a6f6d617c6d656b627f293e4a6f63626b7e697f7f6563626d60293e4a383b3d3d3e3d34293e4a657f216d2161656878697e61216960696f78656362216e607969217b6d7a69216e7965606865626b293e4a) (Email)        (https://www.google.com/preferences/source?q=washingtonexaminer.com)   Add Washington Examiner on Google     There have always been two ways to look at the (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/2026-election/) midterm elections : The national environment heavily favors Democrats, but the congressional map gives Republicans (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/premium/4585577/gop-hopes-favorable-map-counter-terrible-conditions/) a glimmer of hope to hold their majorities or at least avoid getting hammered by a historic blue wave. House Speaker (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/mike-johnson/) Mike Johnson (R-LA) often (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4707920/21-seats-mike-johnson-decide-house-majority/) points to the 21 seats in his chamber rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report when talking up Republican chances, but this week, the proprietor of that newsletter sounded a distinctly skeptical note. Recommended Stories   (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4713580/inside-elections-shifts-new-hampshire-senate-race-toss-up-john-sununu/?itm_source=parsely-api) (Inside Elections shifts New Hampshire Senate race to toss-up in favor of John Sununu)  Inside Elections shifts New Hampshire Senate race to toss-up in favor of John Sununu   (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4712550/battleground-senate-candidates-may-never-debate/?itm_source=parsely-api) (These battleground Senate candidates may never share a debate stage)  These battleground Senate candidates may never share a debate stage   (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4713127/missouri-supreme-court-republican-map-midterm-ballot/?itm_source=parsely-api) (Missouri Supreme Court forbids GOP-drawn map from appearing on ballot pending vote)  Missouri Supreme Court forbids GOP-drawn map from appearing on ballot pending vote     “It appears to me that the president has now reached a critical mass of problems that are threatening to take this election to a place that the 2026 map and the small number of competitive districts and Senate seats should not allow it to go,” Charlie Cook wrote with a little more than 60 days to go before the elections. “I confess this is a lot bigger than I expected, but here we are.” Advertisement    President (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/donald-trump/) Donald Trump ’s job approval rating remains below 40% in the (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating) RealClearPolitics polling average , with even worse numbers on specific issues such as the (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/economy) economy , (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/military-action-iran) Iran , and (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/inflation) inflation .  Democrats lead by 5.7 points in the same (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote) average of polls on the generic congressional ballot, which measures which party voters prefer to control (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/congress/) Congress . While the latest Harvard-Harris poll has Republicans up 2 points, every other poll included has Democrats leading by anywhere from 5 to 11 points. This is less than the final (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2018/generic-congressional-vote) RealClearPolitics average before the 2018 midterm elections during Trump’s first term (Democrats +7.3) or the actual House popular vote result that November (Democrats +8.4), which was good enough for a blue wave in which Democrats gained more than 40 House seats and the majority. Advertisement    That year, Republicans were defending 25 House seats in districts won by (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/hillary-clinton/) Hillary Clinton in 2016. Today, they are trying to hold (https://x.com/LACaldwellDC/status/2066914605058728106) eight districts carried by former Vice President (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/kamala-harris/) Kamala Harris in 2024, while Democrats hold 23 seats in districts won by Trump. But the existing Republican majority is also smaller. After Rep. Aisha Wahab (D-CA) was sworn in on Wednesday, the House GOP controlled exactly 218 seats, though the sole independent also technically caucuses with Republicans. (He is (https://kiley.house.gov/posts/rep-kiley-proposes-change-to-house-rules-to-assure-committee-seats-for-independent-members) currently seeking a rules change so he doesn’t have to.) No blue wave is necessary to flip the House. The Senate is a different story. Assuming they hold their own seats, Democrats need to win at least four out of five races in states Trump carried in 2024, some by double digits, to capture the majority. That seems like a tall order, but they are competitive in all these contests. Advertisement    Democrats have been favored in the North Carolina Senate race since Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced his retirement and former Gov. Roy Cooper declared as the Democratic candidate. Georgia was once seen as the Republicans’ pickup opportunity, but now Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is up by 7.5 points and taking 50.7% overall in the (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/georgia/ossoff-vs-collins) RealClearPolitics average . Democrats are leading by much smaller margins in Alaska, Ohio, and Texas, while Republicans enjoy a slim lead in Iowa. That sounds like a blue wave in the making. On the other hand, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini has documented how summer polls often (https://www.patrickruffini.com/p/why-senate-polling-is-always-worse) look better for Democrats in key Senate races, so it is conceivable that the redder states revert to their roots by November. Democrats also haven’t nailed down their own seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, or Minnesota. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) remains competitive in her reelection bid after Democrats swapped out Senate nominees, and she (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2020/maine/collins-vs-gideon) significantly outperformed her poll numbers six years ago. The Senate resisted the last blue wave in 2018, with Republicans actually gaining two seats. Democrats gained one seat in 2022, while Republicans won back the House. Democrats will need a wave rather than a ripple to seize the Senate this November. Advertisement    (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4709424/tv-networks-low-key-gop-midterm-convention-nfl-games/) TV NETWORKS PLAN LOW-KEY COVERAGE OF GOP MIDTERM CONVENTIONS AMID HIGH-PROFILE NFL GAMES    But if Democrats can win this many Senate races in unfavorable territory, it would raise questions about how many House seats are truly in play. Maybe the national climate is bad enough for Republicans that districts that would not normally be competitive suddenly are. Republicans are focused on mid-decade redistricting, cash spending, and turning out Trump voters in order to defy history as the party in power during the midterm elections. 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(https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4712550/battleground-senate-candidates-may-never-debate/) (These battleground Senate candidates may never share a debate stage)   These battleground Senate candidates may never share a debate stage      (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4713127/missouri-supreme-court-republican-map-midterm-ballot/) (Missouri Supreme Court forbids GOP-drawn map from appearing on ballot pending vote)   Missouri Supreme Court forbids GOP-drawn map from appearing on ballot pending vote     (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4713085/dccc-reserves-coordinated-tv-ad-spending/) (Democrats’ campaign arm reserves $338,000 in coordinated TV ad spending)   Democrats’ campaign arm reserves $338,000 in coordinated TV ad spending     (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4712950/elon-musk-gop-spending-advantage-2026/) (Elon Musk boosts GOP spending advantage with return as 2026 juggernaut)   Elon Musk boosts GOP spending advantage with return as 2026 juggernaut              Gas Tracker   Updated Daily  Today's National Average $ 4.15   +$0.00      Price per gallon of regular unleaded in the U.S. Change since Sep. 4, 2026 ·  
                                        Source: (https://gasprices.aaa.com/) AAA     TRENDING NOW    (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/premium/4585577/gop-hopes-favorable-map-counter-terrible-conditions/?itm_source=parsely-api) (Blue wave or red wall? Republicans hope a favorable map can counter terrible conditions)   Blue wave or red wall? Republicans hope a favorable map can counter...     (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4563912/republicans-blue-wave-2026-midterm-elections/?itm_source=parsely-api) (Republicans build the wall against a blue wave)   Republicans build the wall against a blue wave     (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/3485452/blue-wave-possible-too-early-look-midterm-elections/?itm_source=parsely-api) (Is a blue wave even possible? A way too early look at the midterm elections)   Is a blue wave even possible? A way too early look at...     (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4677118/shades-of-2006-midterm-elections-2026/?itm_source=parsely-api) (Shades of 2006? What this election does, and doesn’t, have in common with Democratic wave 20 years ago)   Shades of 2006? What this election does, and doesn’t, have in common...     (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/2857885/2024-could-come-down-to-who-gets-their-least-likely-voters-to-show-up/?itm_source=parsely-api) (2024 could come down to who gets their least likely voters to show up)   2024 could come down to who gets their least likely voters to...     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