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                    "The Iran war is settling into attrition, with no regime collapse and Gulf economies facing growing uncertaintyAnalysts broadly agree the United States and Israel\u2019s war on Iran will not see regime collapse in Tehran or a definite victory for Washington, but rather a dragged-out affair of stagnation and attrition.The hope among the US leadership at the start of the war, which began after surprise Israeli and US attacks on February 28, was that mounting economic and military pressure on Iran would force a structural shift in Tehran. Six months on, it is clear this vision will not come about, and instead many are preparing for a protracted war and managed fallout.Recommended Stories list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4Israel continues attacks on Syria, Lebanon despite US push for diplomacylist 2 of 4How a 95 percent drop in Hormuz traffic changed global shippinglist 3 of 4Six months of the Iran war \u2013 as told through Trump\u2019s social media postslist 4 of 4Is Iran war diplomacy ramping up, as Qatar, Oman, Pakistan officials visit?end of listOil-dependent economies are still absorbing supply shocks after traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a trickle of pre-war levels following Iran\u2019s attacks on shipping and a US blockade on Iranian ports.The US military is still entrenched in a region that remains its most militarised in years. Although the war\u2019s intensity has lessened since a memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed by Washington and Tehran in June, there is no sign it will conclude, leading to continued uncertainty about the future.Existing tensions, such as those between the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia in Yemen, look only set to increase as the war drags on. The influence of rival powers, such as those of India and China, remains stalled rather than stopped,\u00a0with Beijing\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative having already established itself within the Middle East and North Africa. All in all, the region remains in flux where formal alliances with outside powers no longer guarantee safety.The defence agreement between Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia recently signed in Mecca will likely be the first of many such military pacts agreed in the region.\u201cThe war has just accelerated trends, but hasn\u2019t really started anything that wasn\u2019t already under way. The Gulf countries were already diversifying their economies,\u201d Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera. \u201cMany were already looking at broadening their defence partnerships beyond existing US security guarantees, as well as increasing their own defence capability.\u201dIsrael, for its part, is still pursuing its regional project of \u201cparamountcy\u201d, HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute said, despite its failure to bring Iran to its knees this year.\u201cThere is no chance of the government in Tehran falling in the next six months,\u201d Hellyer told Al Jazeera. \u201cIf everything were to theoretically stay the same \u2026 with just increased economic pressure, that could eventually cause a ripple effect that could lead to state collapse in Iran. But we\u2019re talking years, not months, and everything is not likely to stay the same.\u201dSmoke rises from the site of a string of Israeli air strikes that targeted the area of al-Mansouri, as seen from the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on August 25, 2026 [Kawnat Haju/AFP]The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on regional cities have hindered Gulf states\u2019 plans to use oil revenues as an engine to diversify their economies and build on their reputations as a safe haven to encourage investors.Shipments of oil, derivative products and liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been repeatedly and severely disrupted since the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in February.Transit through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which saw attacks on shipping by the Houthis during Israel\u2019s genocidal war on Gaza, became even more hazardous in July, when the Iran-allied Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.\u201cThe price of oil has increased broadly in line with the Gulf states\u2019 difficulties in exporting it,\u201d John Sfakianakis, chief economist at the Gulf Research Center, told Al Jazeera. \u201cIs this going to go for six months? Is it going to go on for longer?\u201dExacerbating the Gulf states\u2019 difficulties is that, although the price of oil has risen, so has inflation. In addition to the economic difficulties the war has created, there is also growing pressure for Gulf states to invest more in defence.For now, the majority of the states caught in the middle will look at ways of living with the turmoil and managing the consequences."
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