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                    "The TWZ Newsletter\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tWeekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\n\nTroubling new reports are emerging about CIA Director John Ratcliffe\u2019s surprise visit to Moscow on Tuesday. All of the reports point to delivering a warning to Putin\u2019s regime, while exactly the nature of that warning differs.\n\n\n\nThere have been growing concerns in Europe over expanding Russian aggression and specifically the possibility it could attack a NATO country to test the alliance\u2019s resolve. There are also reports that Putin will drastically increase offensive operations in Ukraine due to the massive damage his country is now taking from long-range drone and cruise missile strikes, as well as failed peace talks. Reports even state that he is mulling the use of tactical nuclear weapons in order to stop these attacks and change the tide of the years-long conflict, a possibility which we will discuss more later in this piece. Iran, of course, is also a major issue, but it seems, at least based on reporting, it had taken a backseat to whatever the director was trying to accomplish in Moscow.\n\n\n\nWednesday evening, The Wall Street Journal reported that Ratcliffe was in Moscow to deliver a message to Putin not to attack NATO countries. His visit \u201cfollowed new U.S. intelligence assessments, reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal, that Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test the resolve of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years,\u201d the newspaper noted. We have been reporting on major concerns over exactly this for weeks now. \n\n\n\nU.S. officials \u201care concerned that Putin, squeezed in Ukraine and under pressure at home, could launch an assault ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion, likely on a Baltic nation,\u201d the Journal added.\u00a0\n\n\n\n\u201cKremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow on Wednesday that Ratcliffe held talks with Russian intelligence officials during his time in the Russian capital, but he didn\u2019t meet with Putin. Putin was briefed on the talks, Peskov said,\u201d according to the publication.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nEXCLUSIVE: CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise visit to Moscow this week to deliver a warning to Russia: Don't attack NATO countries, according to people briefed on the visit\u2014 Dave Brown (@dave_brown24) August 26, 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nEarlier on Wednesday, ABC News reported that an explosive drone found near an An-124-100 Ruslan (NATO reporting name Condor) cargo jet at Leipzig airport in Germany earlier this month \u201cbore the hallmarks of devices typically employed by Russia\u2019s Military Intelligence Directorate, the GRU.\u201d The network cited a U.S. intelligence source.\n\n\n\n\u201cThe U.S. official, who was briefed on the investigation into the alleged sabotage plot, said the explosives fitted to the drone as well as the structure of the lethal device were \u2018typical\u2019 of those used by Russia\u2019s GRU,\u201d ABC added. \u201cThis U.S. assessment was made in conjunction with German security and intelligence agencies, the source added.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\u26a1\ufe0fUS intel links explosive drone found at German airport to Russia's military intelligence.The drone's structure and explosives were \"typical\" of those used by Russia's GRU, U.S. intelligence officials told ABC News.https://t.co/g7IsdhNOeT\u2014 The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 26, 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nNumerous\u00a0Russian drone incursions and other actions\u00a0have some European officials convinced that Putin\u00a0is already waging so-called hybrid war against NATO, and has been doing so for some time. \n\n\n\nMeanwhile, President Donald Trump downplayed the Ratcliffe trip, which has sparked a wide range of speculation about its purpose.\n\n\n\nThe president called it \u201csemi-routine.\u201d\n\n\n\nThat statement is hard to square considering how rare having a CIA director rush to Moscow is. The last time this happened was just prior to the war in Ukraine breaking out into the destructive reality we see today. \n\n\n\n\n\n\nQ: Why did CIA Director Ratcliffe go to Russia? Rumors say Putin is going to test NATO\u2019s resolve, or Iranian sanctions, or Russia attacking England?Trump: None of the above. pic.twitter.com/jRrRI1B0wu\u2014 Clash Report (@clashreport) August 26, 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nAs we noted earlier in this story, Putin is reportedly considering escalating attacks on Ukraine, including the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons, Bloomberg reported, citing \u201cthree people close to the Kremlin.\u201d\n\n\n\n\u201cFor now, Russia is weighing an intensification of powerful conventional ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, including the center of the capital, and infrastructure targets in other Ukrainian cities.\u201d \n\n\n\nAt issue, Bloomberg suggested, is that negotiation \u201cframeworks have all effectively collapsed, leaving the two warring sides back at square one.\u201d\n\n\n\nThis comes as Ukraine is already reeling from constant attacks, especially ballistic missile strikes it can\u2019t defend against because of the lack of Patriot interceptors.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRussia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end, according to three people close to the Kremlin. https://t.co/y7gMjOmf2J\u2014 Bloomberg (@business) August 26, 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nMoreover, the Kremlin \u201chas also abandoned reliance on what it believed was an understanding reached between Putin and Trump at their summit in Alaska last August,\u201d Bloomberg noted.\n\n\n\nYou can see video from that encounter below.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSuch a deal would have required the Trump administration to force Ukraine into giving up the eastern Donetsk region, a demand Kyiv has rejected as it continues to hold out against a Russian onslaught that has gained little ground.\n\n\n\nThe White House this evening pushed back on the notion that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have reached an insurmountable impasse. A peace deal has been a major objective for President Donald Trump, who famously promised that he would end the conflict on his first day in office.\n\n\n\n\u201cThe president wants this war settled so that the senseless killing ends,\u201d a White House official told TWZ. \u201cThe president and his team remain committed to continuing to play a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he remains optimistic that we\u2019ll ultimately get a peace deal done.\u201d\u00a0\n\n\n\nThe United States \u201ccontinues to play a constructive role in speaking to both sides in working towards bringing the war to an end,\u201d the official added. \u201cWe are the only country in the world that can play that role.\u201d\n\n\n\nThe level of current U.S. involvement in negotiations is unclear. Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner were expected to travel to Moscow after an eight-month break and to visit Kyiv for the first time, but no date has emerged for either trip, Bloomberg noted. Last week, Radio Free Europe reporter Alex Raufoglu stated on X that the pair\u2019s trip to Ukraine was delayed, but not canceled, by ongoing Russian attacks on Kyiv.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNEW!!  Sources tell me the highly anticipated Witkoff-Kushner trip to Ukraine has been \u201cslightly delayed, not cancelled\u201d \u2014 due to last week's intensified missile and drone strikes on Kyiv. Meanwhile Kyiv today \ud83d\udc47 pic.twitter.com/d5hJxZXHCx\u2014 Alex Raufoglu (@ralexdc) August 23, 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nPutin is not about to cave under economic pressure, Bloomberg suggested, citing its sources. Nor will he end hostilities as Ukraine continues to pound Russian refineries and logistics networks. These attacks are having a devastating effect on the Russian economy and creating increasing frustration among the populace.\n\n\n\nAs we noted yesterday, Ukraine\u2019s long-range strikes have spurred Putin to allow the government to temporarily seize what it deems commercial critical infrastructure that is not sufficiently protected against such strikes. This follows Russia\u2019s move earlier this year to allow private companies to purchase their own air defense systems to protect their own facilities.\n\n\n\nOn Wednesday, those attacks continued anew. Ukraine struck another e-commerce hub, causing widespread damage, Russian officials said.\n\n\n\n\u201cAs a result of the Ukrainian drone strikes, a fire broke out at a Wildberries logistics center,\u201d Tambov Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov stated on Telegram. \u201cThe area of the fire is over 100,000 square meters.\u201d\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nWhether Putin actually does escalate attacks remains to be seen. With increased production of ballistic missiles and new ones from North Korea, he may have new means of sustaining conventional attacks. As for a nuclear one, he has constantly rattled that saber for years. As Bloomberg noted, in the past, there have been reports that China and India have frequently urged him to refrain from that steep climb up the escalation ladder.\n\n\n\nWe raised the question of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine several months after he launched his full-on invasion, asking the world\u2019s top nuclear proliferation experts about the likelihood it would happen. You can read this feature here, but our expert\u2019s sentiments were made long before Ukraine was picking apart Russia infrastructure on a daily basis, with a standoff weapons armada growing by the day.\n\n\n\nSo, while it isn\u2019t exactly clear what was discussed in this meeting or its primary objective, none of the reported reasons are encouraging. Quite the opposite, they point to the possibility of a darker new phase in the Russia-NATO standoff. \n\n\n\nContact the author: howard@twz.com"
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