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                    "By Lori-Ann LaRocco \u2013\u00a0The Administrator of the Panama Canal is warning that the upcoming El Ni\u00f1o season will be longer and is taking precautions now to conserve water.\n\n\n\n\u201cWhat we see in the future is a very, very low level of precipitation,\u201d said Ricaurte V\u00e1squez, Administrator of the Panama Canal. \u201cWe have to look at how long this event is going to last. We anticipate that it\u2019s going to last about eight months.\u201d\n\n\n\nTo navigate the duration and anticipated severity of the weather phenomenon, V\u00e1squez explained that the strategy being deployed ahead of this El Ni\u00f1o event is different from the 2023 event, which contributed to the most devastating drought in the canal\u2019s history.\n\n\n\n\u201cThe soil is drier now, so there is less water retention currently in the surrounding areas and the watershed, which makes things more complicated,\u201d explained V\u00e1squez.\n\n\n\nThe administrator said lake levels in the spring were high enough to accommodate increased traffic.\n\n\n\n\u201cWe used the water to move some cargo, and that helped to release the pressure on the system,\u201d said V\u00e1squez. \u201cBut now what we are facing is a significant number of vessels coming without a reservation. One lesson we learned from the previous event was that everyone has to book. So those who do not have a reservation wait and see, and most of them are the ones who pay high prices in order to get the slot.\u201d\n\n\n\nAnd demand for LNG and LPG tanker transits continues to build.\n\n\n\n\u201cThere are capacity limitations that are currently existing that generate additional demand for fast transit,\u201d said V\u00e1squez.\n\n\n\nDemand for faster transits has increased the\u00a0number of bidders\u00a0for auction slots. The canal has seen back-to-back record auctions.\n\n\n\nThis increase in vessel transits comes at a challenging time for the canal.\n\n\n\ngCaptain compared the current water level of Gatun Lake, the Panama Canal\u2019s main water body and vital operational core. ACP data show lake levels in August are lower today than they were in August 2022. That was ahead of the last El Ni\u00f1o, which produced what was considered the worst drought in the canal\u2019s history.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe deteriorating water outlook has already forced the canal to change course from earlier projections that it could maintain normal operations through the end of the year.\n\n\n\nLast week, the ACP announced it would reduce daily transit capacity in September after rainfall across the canal watershed fell short of expectations. Neopanamax capacity will drop to nine daily slots beginning Sept. 3, while Panamax capacity will be set at 25 slots before falling to 23 on Sept. 15.\n\n\n\nThe restrictions represent a notable shift from April, when canal officials said they did not anticipate significant operational impacts through December.\n\n\n\nThe canal has also delayed previously announced draft restrictions as near-term lake conditions improved. A reduction in the maximum authorized Neopanamax draft to 48 feet has been pushed back from Aug. 26 to Sept. 2, while a further reduction to 47.5 feet has been postponed from Sept. 3 to Oct. 1.\n\n\n\nThe combination of fewer transit slots and continued strong demand is putting additional pressure on vessels arriving without reservations. The ACP has warned that reduced capacity could increase waiting times and has urged customers to use its booking system to guarantee transit dates.\n\n\n\nThe share of U.S. LPG exports headed to Asia has increased five percentage points, from 55% to 60%. In a prior\u00a0gCaptain interview, Victor Vial, CFO of the ACP, said the authority began seeing a surge in transits of chemical and oil tankers starting Feb. 28 and March 1.\n\n\n\nBefore the war, the Panama Canal had 34 transits a day, seven of which were tankers. The Iran War pushed more vessel traffic toward the canal, boosting the total to 40 to 41 daily transits.\n\n\n\nNow, with drier weather looming, the ACP will cut daily vessel transits in a two-step process in September, first to 34 and then to 32. The maximum authorized draft for the Neopanamax locks of 48 feet, originally scheduled to take effect Aug. 26, has been pushed back to Sept. 2. A subsequent adjustment to 47.5 feet has been postponed until Oct. 1.\n\n\n\nBut the historic drought during the 2023-24 El Ni\u00f1o forced significant transit restrictions, causing backlogs and rerouting of LNG and tanker traffic.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nDuring fiscal year 2024, the Panama Canal Authority reported a 29% drop in vessel transits. LNG and dry bulk transits saw some of the biggest declines, with LNG transits down 66%.\n\n\n\nToday, 36 vessels are moving through the canal. That will drop to 34 in early September, then to 32 on Sept. 15. The lowest number of daily transits during the 2023-24 El Ni\u00f1o was 22.\n\n\n\n\u201cEvery drop of water counts,\u201d said V\u00e1squez. \u201cThis is why bookings are so important. It provides predictability to the operation of the Panama Canal, so we can work on the daily vessel transit mix. We are making sure we are at a level where we have reliability for the next six to eight months, and that is critical to us.\u201d\n\n\n\nV\u00e1squez told gCaptain the canal is discussing the deployment of larger container vessels with customers. The metric used in its hydrology analysis is cargo moved per cubic meter of water.\n\n\n\n\u201cWe are asking them to try to consolidate cargo so you can bring a larger vessel to transit at a given draft,\u201d said V\u00e1squez.\n\n\n\nVessels without appointments are waiting 8.5 days. Backlogs at the Panama Canal reached 154 ships, with wait times of up to 21 days, during the last El Ni\u00f1o.\n\n\n\nTo mitigate waiting times, some energy exporters are using ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to move liquefied petroleum gas from the U.S. to Asia. Using narrower Panamax tankers lets operators move through the older Panamax locks. Not only are the waits shorter, but rates are lower.\n\n\n\nThis strategy will be a boost for companies involved in STS operations, maritime agents, tug companies, fendering companies and surveyors.\n\n\n\nThe canal authority has been pressing forward with projects to ensure the canal\u2019s long-term viability during drier seasons. Discussions with residents affected by the proposed $1.6 billion R\u00edo Indio Reservoir Project are ongoing.\n\n\n\n\u201cThe conversation is flowing,\u201d said V\u00e1squez. \u201cJust the mere fact that some of the residents have allowed us to use their properties in order to do geological testing is a very important sign. So the tensions and the pressures that were about two years ago have subsided significantly.\u201d\n\n\n\nHowever, some initial geological findings on soil conditions in the region differ from what the canal anticipated. This may result in changes to the location and construction procedures.\n\n\n\n\u201cIf that happens, there will probably be some delays in redesigning some of the infrastructure. But we are waiting on that, and it\u2019s important that you have that information now instead of finding out later on,\u201d V\u00e1squez said.\n\n\n\nBreaking ground on the project has been delayed by between six and eight months.\n\n\n\nOther projects the canal is undertaking to expand its trade capacity include building two ports and an LPG pipeline. The July deadline for terminal concessions has closed. V\u00e1squez said the team handling the concession process is now reviewing the submissions.\n\n\n\n\u201cThey are working very hard in trying to get this information on pre-qualification as soon as possible,\u201d said V\u00e1squez. \u201cWe are very rigorous about the process.\u201d\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tEditorial Standards \u00b7 Corrections \u00b7 About gCaptain\t                \n\n\n\t\tSubscribe for Daily Maritime Insights\n\t\tSign up for gCaptain\u2019s newsletter and never miss an update\n        \u2014 trusted by our 104,489 members"
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