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                    "Last Tuesday, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei hosted a wake for his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Among the thousands who thronged Tehran\u2019s biggest mosque were the country\u2019s most prominent political figures and several of the elder Khamenei\u2019s sons. One person was notably absent: Mojtaba, the event\u2019s official host.Almost six months since his anointment, Iran\u2019s supreme leader has been entirely obscured from the public eye. Not a single contemporaneous picture, video, or audio recording of him has been released. Many of the country\u2019s top political leaders admit that they haven\u2019t seen him\u2014among them Abbas Araghchi, Iran\u2019s foreign minister and a member of the National Security Council. IranWire, a London-based opposition outlet, reports that not a single cabinet member has met with Mojtaba since he became supreme leader.Not even Mojtaba\u2019s close friends and relatives have seen him. Fewer than five people have met with Mojtaba since his ascent to power, Mohammad Hossein Khoshvaght, a former official and a relative of Mojataba\u2019s told me, \u201cdue to security precautions.\u201dThe rationale is not implausible. Mojtaba would be a likely target for an Israeli or U.S. air strike, such as the one that killed his father. Direct communication from him could supply Iran\u2019s enemies with clues to his whereabouts. He is also said to have sustained injuries in the February strike on his family that have made public speeches and appearances difficult.Graeme Wood: \u2018The most dangerous man in the world\u2019But the totality of Mojtaba\u2019s invisibility and a recent decline in statements from his office have set Tehran abuzz with new rumors of his death. Some sources inside and close to the government speculated to me that Mojtaba recently died from the injuries that he had sustained in February. And irrespective of his actual status, the uncertainty might have major implications for Iran.\u201cI believe Mojtaba has either passed away or is brain-dead,\u201d a staffer at a government institution in Tehran told me, citing the tailing off of even indirect communication from the leader to the outside world. At least two other government officials told me the same. One said that he believed Mojtaba died or became brain-dead earlier this month.Two sources in the Iranian government recently told IranWire that word had spread among those at the \u201chighest level of the regime\u201d that Mojtaba was doing very poorly and could die at any moment. About two weeks ago, a public appeal went out on a domestic messaging service, asking Iranians to pray for Mojtaba\u2019s health and sacrifice sheep to bless him, as is customary in Islam. Mojtaba\u2019s life was \u201cunder threat,\u201d and some \u201cclerics\u201d had warned that he might be killed, the appeal said.Since he was appointed, Mojtaba has ruled by decrees disseminated by his office. Iran\u2019s supreme leader is a religious authority in addition to being the head of state, and on July 27, Mojtaba\u2019s office published a list of his answers to practical questions posed by the devout. One correspondent had requested guidance on eating with bleeding gums, because blood is haram\u2014forbidden\u2014in Islam. Any food contaminated with blood, including from one\u2019s own gums, must be thrown out, Mojtaba ruled. If his office is to be believed, then the leader was well enough to ponder Islamic law and issue relevant rulings as recently as a month ago.The office\u2019s most recent statement came on August 9 and reported that Mojtaba had met with President Masoud Pezeshkian. It didn\u2019t say when the meeting had taken place but noted that it was on the occasion of the president\u2019s third year in office, which puts it on or after July 28. Pezeshkian confirmed to the Iranian media that he spent seven hours with Mojtaba discussing the war and the country\u2019s beleaguered economy. (According to Khoshvaght, Pezeshkian was taken to that meeting \u201cwithout knowing where it was,\u201d which suggests that he was transported blindfolded, mafia-style.) Also on August 9, Mojtaba issued a slew of decrees, appointing several generals to top military positions and swapping out one of his representatives on the National Security Council. Since then, the office has been silent.Khoshvaght assured me that Mojtaba is definitely alive. The rumors about the leader\u2019s death are \u201cpart of a psychological war hoping to demoralize Iran\u2019s officials and its people, for them to give up to the pressures and threats of America,\u201d he said. He added that the rumors also aim to embolden Iranians opposed to the regime, giving them \u201ccourage to come to the streets so that the plans of the U.S. and Israel can be realized.\u201d Abdolreza Davari, a former adviser to the interior ministry and a vocal supporter of Mojtaba\u2019s, told me that the leader is \u201cin full health\u201d and will soon be revealed to the public. But the two weeks with no communication, the public appeal for sheep sacrifice, and the rumors emanating from government circles have led many Iranians to doubt such assurances.Whether Mojtaba is dead or alive, his public absence creates problems for the Iranian regime. The supreme leader holds most of the constitutional power in the Islamic Republic and has in the past served as the final arbiter among the system\u2019s warring factions and institutions. Mojtaba appears to be sitting these conflicts out, at a moment when their outcome could be particularly consequential.Robert Kagan: Iran unleashedThe country\u2019s 13-person National Security Council is effectively running the country as a collective. It is chaired by Pezeshkian, a reformist who favors an end to the war with America, and includes Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the powerful parliamentary speaker who led the talks with the United States. But it also includes General Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and other military leaders.Back in June, 12 of the council\u2019s 13 members voted in favor of the memorandum of understanding that Iran reached with the United States in Islamabad. Mojtaba sent a message endorsing the deal but also noting that he had initially opposed such an agreement \u201cin principle.\u201d Hard-line critics of diplomacy seized on this to claim that Ghalibaf had usurped power and forced the memorandum on the leader. A news outlet linked to a faction in the IRGC even issued a documentary called Ghalibaf\u2019s Coup.Mojtaba neither endorsed this view nor put it to rest. Rather, he has remained mum as various factions have purported to speak for him. Pezeshkian has told reporters that in his meeting with Mojtaba, the leader stressed that regime officials should \u201ckeep unity and cohesion\u201d and avoid infighting.But the infighting goes on. In June, a statement signed by 63 of the 88 members of the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body tasked with supervising the supreme leader, admonished regime officials that none of them was authorized to act against Mojtaba\u2019s \u201cdefinite opinion.\u201d At the same time, the statement called on any Muslim \u201cwho could gain access\u201d to kill Donald Trump\u2014not quite the message of Iran\u2019s negotiators, but rather more consonant with Mojtaba\u2019s statements promising \u201cblood revenge.\u201dThe Iranian regime has existential choices to make as it decides between diplomacy and conflict. Iran\u2019s constitution is clear about who has the authority to set the country\u2019s course. But no one seems able to say for sure whether that person is alive or dead. And without a firm hand at the top, indecision can become a purgatory without a foreseeable end."
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