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                    "(Bloomberg) \u2014 Turkey, a key US ally and Iran\u2019s third-largest trading partner, is at risk of losing a key energy supplier if Washington makes good on a threat to economically isolate Tehran.\n\n\n\nUS warnings against any country doing business with Iran raise questions over how Ankara would navigate the potential severing of ties with one of its biggest natural gas suppliers \u2014 something it didn\u2019t do even when targeted by\u00a0four Iranian missiles\u00a0in the early weeks of the conflict.\n\n\n\nTurkey sourced about 13% of its natural gas imports from Iran last year, equivalent to 7.7 billion cubic meters, according to data from the energy regulator in Ankara. That made Iran its fourth-largest supplier after Russia, Azerbaijan and the US. \u00a0\u00a0\n\n\n\nGas flows continued after the start of US and Israeli airstrikes on the Islamic Republic in late February, aside from a\u00a0brief interruption\u00a0following an attack on the giant South Pars gas field, Bloomberg News reported at the time. \u00a0\n\n\n\nBilateral trade\u00a0remained robust at about $3.1 billion in the first half of the year, down 3% from the previous year, while Iranian visitor numbers recovered from an initial drop to account for 5.5% of Turkey\u2019s foreign arrivals in the first seven months of the year.\n\n\n\nTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that any country that continues to do business with Iran after an unspecified set time period can expect economic punishment from Washington, and that President Donald Trump is calling relevant world leaders with specific requests.\u00a0\n\n\n\nThat implies a call from the White House to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom Trump is on good terms. At last month\u2019s NATO summit in Ankara, the US president showered his host with praise, calling him much more \u201cloyal\u201d than other countries. The pair spoke by phone a week ago, according to Turkey\u2019s state-run Anadolu Agency.\u00a0\n\n\n\nErdogan is unlikely to want to anger Trump as Turkey\u00a0tries to offload\u00a0Russian air-defense equipment to pave the way for talks over the purchase of US-made F-35 fighter jets. He\u2019s also seeking a return to the consortium producing fifth-generation jets and to buy F-16 fighters, and is due to visit Washington next month.\u00a0\n\n\n\n\u201cErdogan would not do anything to upset Trump and jeopardize improving ties with Washington in the run-up to elections in less than two years,\u201d Nihat Ali Ozcan, a strategist with Ankara-based think tank TEPAV, said on Tuesday. \u201cAnkara would clearly side with Washington, even if it is forced to secure more expensive energy supplies elsewhere before winter.\u201d\n\n\n\nThe US and Turkey have clashed publicly over Iran with regards to a long-running criminal case against Turkish state-owned lender Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS over alleged sanctions violations. In a sign of improving US-Turkey ties, the Justice Department in June asked a judge to drop the case.\n\n\n\nGas Deal\u00a0\n\n\n\nTurkey has continued to import Iranian gas even after a 25-year contract for 9.5 billion cubic meters a year expired at the end of July, according to people familiar with the matter.\n\n\n\nThe additional volume is so-called \u2018make-up gas\u2019 that compensates for supply that was paid for but not delivered during the agreement, the people said.\n\n\n\nIran said in 2024 that negotiations were underway for a replacement deal, potentially for increased volume. But Turkey\u2019s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said in April that no talks were taking place due to the war, adding that Ankara \u201cmight need this gas pipeline or the gas flow from Iran for security of supply.\u201d\n\n\n\nTurkey\u2019s Energy Ministry declined to comment on Tuesday and Iran\u2019s Iran\u2019s Oil Ministry hasn\u2019t responded to multiple requests for comment.\n\n\n\nThe US launch of what Bessent called \u201coperation economic outcast\u201d is an effort to close off options to Iran other than accept total global isolation or agree acceptable terms with Washington to end the six-month war. The extent of the sanction plans remains unclear.\n\n\n\nThe move comes after months of stalemate in the conflict, during which Tehran has asserted control over the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway and the US has blockaded Iranian ports, severely curtailing oil exports.\u00a0\n\n\n\nNeither side has shown a willingness to return to the all-out fighting that characterized the first six weeks of the war. They\u2019ve also failed to make significant headway with diplomacy mediated by Pakistan and Qatar.\n\n\n\nIf forced to reduce gas imports from Iran, Turkey could offset the loss with increased liquefied natural gas imports \u2013 including from the US.\n\n\n\nTurkey has increasingly sought to diversify its sources of supply in recent years with a string of new pipeline and LNG contracts, as well as boosting domestic production to cut its reliance on imports.\n\n\n\nEnergy Minister Bayraktar said in August that storage sites are full.\n\n\n\nTurkey is ramping up domestic production from its Sakarya offshore gas field in the Black Sea and is scheduled to start receiving additional supplies from Azerbaijan starting in 2029.\n\n\n\n\u00a9\u00a02026\u00a0Bloomberg L.P.\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\tEditorial Standards \u00b7 Corrections \u00b7 About gCaptainThis article contains reporting from Bloomberg, published under license.\t                \n\n\n\t\tSubscribe for Daily Maritime Insights\n\t\tSign up for gCaptain\u2019s newsletter and never miss an update\n        \u2014 trusted by our 104,461 members"
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